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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130902
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0845 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong late season gap wind 
event is producing N to NE gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, reaching as far south as 14N. A scatterometer
satellite pass from 03 UTC showed maximum winds of 35 kt, which
had diminished slightly from 40 kt earlier in the evening. Combined
seas are reaching as high as 14 ft, with a plume of seas in 
excess of 8 ft reaching as far as 600 nm offshore in NE swell. 
Ongoing high pressure north of the area will continue to funnel 
these gales through this morning, dropping to near gale or 
strong breeze late today, and finally dissipating Sun night. 
Peak seas should drop below 12 ft this afternoon and below 8 ft 
Sun afternoon. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the weekend should be aware of this ongoing 
gap wind event and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous 
marine conditions over the affected waters. 

Please read the latest Offshore Zone Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml and the High Seas 
Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information on this event.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 06N90W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N90W to 07N120W to 03N135W to beyond 04N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 10N between 
90W and 105W, and from 09N to 10N between 115W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gale warning.

A scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed fresh to 
strong southerly winds over the northern Gulf of California, 
ahead of a cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the 
west. Elsewhere, outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle
variable winds persist across the Mexican offshore waters. 
Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft off Baja California with a component 
of NW swell, and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere except 1 to 4 ft over the 
Gulf of California.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, low 
pressure over the lower Colorado River valley will continue to support
fresh to strong S winds over the northern Gulf of California
through tonight. These winds will be reinforced by a weak cold 
front that will be moving across the waters west of Baja 
California Norte through Sun. This wil allow the continuation of 
fresh to strong winds in the northern Gulf of California through 
early Sun morning. In the wake of the cold front, building high 
pressure should cause fresh to strong NW winds west of the Baja 
California peninsula Sun night into late Tue. Afterward, gentle 
to moderate NW winds will dominate the Baja Peninsula offshores 
through Wed night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing fresh to
strong wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of
Nicaragua downwind to about 90W. A scatterometer satellite pass
around 03 UTC from confirmed this. Seas are estimated to be 8 to
11 ft in this area. The scatterometer data along with a ship 
observation showed fresh N gap winds over the Gulf of Panama as 
well, with fresh to strong winds off the Azuero Peninsula. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds from this gap wind event extend into 
the outer offshore waters El Salvador and Guatemala. Light and 
variable winds prevail across the rest of the Central American 
and Equatorial Pacific waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, 
seas are 4 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near-
gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 
Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into mid week. The
same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong 
N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Elsewhere, 
winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next several days.
Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
tomorrow through Sat night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The ridge that was north of 20N is weakening and shifting east
ahead of a pair of cold fronts moving through the waters north 
of 20N and west of 130W. Trade wind flow farther south into the
tropics is diminishing as the ridge weakens, leaving an area of 8
ft seas in N swell from 05N to 15W west of 135W. Another area of
NW swell is moving south of 30N west of 130W following the
fronts. Meanwhile, as discussed above, NE swell of 8 to 10 ft is
emerging out of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching as far west
as 105W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas
dominate elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold fronts will merge today then weaken
while moving eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja 
California through Sun, then dissipate. Seas should reach to 12 
ft near the northern border of the discussion area at 30N today,
before slowly diminishing on Sun. A large NW to N swell will 
then propagate equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south 
of 10N. Also on Sun and Mon, a large S to SW swell will cross the
equator heading northward. These interacting swell will cause 
combined seas of up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added
to this mix will include a component of shorter period seas due 
to wind waves to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N
to 15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of 
fresh to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
the Gulf of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and 
as far south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Christensen