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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 220851

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to a 1007 mb low pressure
near 12N108W to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. 


Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 15N and
west of 110W. 

Moderate to fresh NW winds persist off Baja California, between 
strong high pressure west of the area over the northeast Pacific,
and lower pressure over central Mexico. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft 
continues north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting
the waters around Guadalupe Island. Light to gentle breezes 
persist elsewhere off Mexico with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in open
waters due to a mix of NW and SW swell. Smoke from regional 
agricultural fires has spread light to medium haze across the 
offshore waters over southern Mexico which could reduce 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will continue through Sat night. NW swell moving 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will persist 
into Thu. Winds in the Gulf of California could increase to 
moderate to briefly fresh tonight as low pressure temporarily 
deepens over the Colorado River Valley, then again Sat night as a
dissipating cold front moves into the region. Light to medium 
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could 
reduce visibilities over the southern Mexico offshore waters 
through Wed. 


Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the offshore 
waters off Costa Rica beyond 120 nm, due in part to converging SW
winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon trough. 
Moderate SW winds are evident south of 10N, with light and 
variable winds north of 10N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft 
primarily in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires 
persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south
as Nicaragua, which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Thu. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to  
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist 
south of 10N through the period, with light to gentle breezes 
north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by 
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over 
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Wed. 


A 1007 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 
12N108W. Fresh to strong SW winds near the low are converging 
into the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W. Combined seas in 
this area are 7 to 9 ft. The convergent SW winds are also 
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm 
south of the monsoon trough. 

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered 
near 40N142W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north 
of 05N and west of 110W, and primarily fresh NE to E trade winds
from 08N to 27N west of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is 
evident north of 28N between 115W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 
to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 134W. Gentle to moderate breezes
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it 
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by 
Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly near the low
pressure, and showers and thunderstorms activity to weaken along
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken 
through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish 
slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja 
California. Little change is noted over the remainder of the