AXPZ20 KNHC 090841
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Dec 9 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 07N91W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N91W to 09N114W to 09N130W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N
to 10N between 110W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1026 mb high pressure center is near 29N126W, with associated
ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a
surface trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to strong
winds over the southern Gulf of California, with seas in the 6-7
ft range. The pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to
fresh winds over the central and northern Gulf of California as
well as west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure
gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower
pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting strong to near gale force winds over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, and seas to 10 ft. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 3-4 ft off the
coast of SW Mexico.
For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting
moderate to fresh winds through Sat. Fresh to locally strong NW
to N winds in the southern Gulf of California will diminish this
morning. Strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish through this weekend. A cold front is
forecast to reach Baja California Norte by late Sun, bringing NW
swell to the waters west of Baja California late Sun through
early next week. The front could bring strong winds to the
northern Gulf of California Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo
region, with seas in the 4-6 ft range. Moderate northerly winds
are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted
elsewhere N of 05N while gentle to moderate southerly winds are
S of 05N. Seas are generally 3-4 ft in regions outside of the
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America,
Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be
expected across most of the offshore waters through the next
several days, except in the Papagayo region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A cold
front is over the far northern waters west of 131W. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds
north of the ITCZ to near 23N and west of 128W. Moderate to fresh
winds are found north of the ITCZ to 22N between 110W and 128W.
Light to gentle winds are north of 22N. Gentle to moderate winds
are south of the ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range in the area
of fresh to strong winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will continue across the forecast
area over the next 24 to 36 hours, supporting a large area of
fresh to strong winds across the west- central waters. Areal
coverage of these winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge
weakens. The front will gradually weaken over the next 24 hours,
with a second stronger cold front entering the waters late on
Sat. Long period northerly swell is forecast to reach the
northern forecast waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building
to 9-13 ft by Sun night.