AXPZ20 KNHC 100816
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across
the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, resulting in the development of
a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this
afternoon reaching up to storm-force Sun night. Peak seas should
reach around 20 ft tonight and Mon morning. Storm-force winds
will end Mon morning, but gale-force winds and rough seas will
prevail in the region of Tehuantepec into Wed morning.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N92W to 08N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong is convection noted from 06N-10N
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.
High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing strong to near
gale NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California with
seas 6-9 ft over the central and N Gulf and 5-7 ft over the S
Gulf. This wind surge over the Gulf of California is likely also
causing some fresh to strong gap wind events just west of the
Baja California peninsula. There is a small fresh to strong N
wind maximum in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, likely due to overnight
drainage flow. Elsewhere, surface ridging extends from a 1029 mb
high off of California to near the Baja California and SW Mexico
coasts. Only gentle to moderate winds are resulting over the
open Pacific waters. Seas are 8 ft in large NW swell west of Baja
California and 5-7 ft off of SW Mexico.
For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong
NW winds over the central and N Gulf of California through
tonight. A recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf
of California may begin Thu night. Large NW swell will gradually
subside off Baja California later today.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the W
Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing fresh to
strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region with seas 6-7
ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are occurring elsewhere with seas
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure
over the W Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south should
continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate
breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds
north of the area over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate
large NW swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador
offshore waters tonight into Wed.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The pressure gradient between the surface ridging along the W
coast of Mexico and the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E
trades from 07N-22N west of 120W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Elsewhere,
winds are gentle to moderate with 8-10 ft seas in large NW swell.
For the forecast, the surface ridging should weaken by Tue,
diminishing the trades Tue into Thu. Seas should drop below 8 ft
by Wed over the tradewind belt. On tonight into Mon night, fresh
to strong NE winds associated with the Tehuanteper gap wind
event will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with seas
8-12 ft. A large, long-period swell should reach the NW corner of
the waters on Wed and gradually decay while quickly moving