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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



204 
AXPZ20 KNHC 140345
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from Colombia near 06N77W to 04N80W to 04N85W. 
The ITCZ continues from 04N85W to 07N110W to beyond 03N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 12N between
100W and 110W, and from 06N to 12N between 118W and 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong to near-gale force winds are active over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, but these winds are diminishing as high pressure
north of the region weakens and shifts eastward. Rough seas will
persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as well through early Sun.
Fresh to strong SW winds may still be active over the far
northern Gulf of California, but are diminishing as well. These
winds have been occurring since yesterday ahead of a cold front
approaching Baja California from the west. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere off Mexico over 
open waters.

For the forecast, the strong to near-gale force winds across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec will finally dissipate Sun night as the high
pressure north of the region continues to move eastward. Fresh 
SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will persist 
overnight ahead of a weak cold front moves across the waters west
of Baja California Norte through Sun. In the wake of the cold 
front, building high pressure should cause fresh to strong NW 
winds west of the Baja California peninsula Sun night into late 
Tue. Afterward, gentle to moderate NW winds will dominate the 
Baja Peninsula offshores through Thu evening. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Building high pressure north of the region is allowing strong to
near-gale wind pulses across the Gulf of Papagayo and coast of 
Nicaragua, reaching as far north as the Gulf of Fonseca. Coastal
observations and recent scatterometer indicate this. Seas are 
estimated to be 8 to 10 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh 
easterly winds from this gap wind event extend into the offshore 
waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Fresh to strong N gap winds 
and seas to 8 ft prevail over the Gulf of Panama as well, 
extending as far south as 03N. Light and variable winds prevail 
across the rest of the Central American and Equatorial Pacific 
waters. Outside of the Papagayo and Panama regions, seas are 4 to
6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure north of the region 
will support fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo 
and the coast of Nicaragua through Sun night, pulsing to near- 
gale overnight tonight. The forcing will diminish some Mon into 
Tue, but moderate to fresh winds will continue into Tue evening. 
The same pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to 
strong N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama through Sun. 
Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker for the next 
several days. Meanwhile, large seas generated in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue to propagate across the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador through late Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front reaching from southern California to 24N130W has
displaced the subtropical ridge north of 15N, allowing for trade
winds to diminish slightly farther south into the tropics.
Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft follow the front. A mid to upper 
level trough is supporting a surface trough along 115W south of 
12N, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms either side 
of the trough along the ITCZ. A plume of fresh winds and 8 to 10 
ft seas follow the trough from 05N to 15N, originating from the 
gap winds events off Mexico and Central America. Farther south,
southerly swell to 8 ft is cross the equator between 120W and
130W.

For the forecast, the cold front will weaken while moving 
eastward across the waters north of 25N into Baja California 
through Sun, then dissipate. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front, supporting fresh trade winds from 05N to 15N west
of 130W. Seas to 12 ft associated with the front will slowly 
subside Sun. A large NW to N swell will then propagate 
equatorward on Sun and Mon reaching as far south of 10N. Also on 
Sun and Mon, the large S to SW swell crossing the equator heading
northward. These interacting swell will cause combined seas of 
up to 10 ft between 08N-22N west of 115W. Added to this mix will 
include a component of shorter period wind waves from the trade
wind flow to create an area of confused seas from roughly 10N to
15N between 115W and 130W. Farther east, the long tail of fresh 
to strong NE to E winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf
of Papagayo region will reach as far west as 110W and as far 
south as 08N. Seas will reach up to 10 ft.

$$
Christensen