306 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130415
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The most significant gap wind event 
thus far of the season has peaked in intensity and areal coverage
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Strong high pressure 
centered across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is drifting NE 
tonight, with the associated strong ridge extending southward 
behind a stalling front stretching from central Cuba through 
northern Honduras and central Guatemala. This pattern continues 
to support gale-force N winds from the Tehuantepec coast to near 
14.5N, with strong to gale-force winds then extending nearly 300 
NM offshore of the coast. Seas likely range from 11 to 13 ft in 
the area of gales. Winds and seas will subside very slowly 
tonight, with gales expected to end Fri morning. Then strong to 
near- gale force winds will continue north of 13N Fri afternoon 
through Mon morning as strong high pressure persists across the 
Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean. Large swell of 8 ft and 
greater generated from this significant event has spread as far 
south as 06N this evening, and extends between offshore of the 
Papagayo region and 107W. As this gale event winds down tonight 
through late Fri, and a more typical strong gap wind scenario 
prevails over the weekend, the associated significant winds and 
seas occurring this weekend across Tehuantepec are only expected 
to extend to around 240 NM offshore.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N84W to 06N95W.
The ITCZ then continues from 06N95W to 09.5N125W to beyond 
07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
occurring from 06N to 10N between 106W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A cold front is approaching the Baja Norte waters tonight from
the northwest, currently near 30N120W, while a trough has formed
in the northern Gulf of California this afternoon and
evening. Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed gentle NW
winds occurring north of 26N and west of 115W offshore of Baja 
California Norte, and moderate winds north of Punta Eugenia. 
NW swell moving through the area waters is promoting seas of 6 to
7 ft across the Baja offshore waters except to 8 ft across the
outer waters. Elsewhere, broad ridging extends over the rest of 
the Mexico offshore waters, supporting light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec described above, the weakening cold front 
approaching Baja Norte from the northwest will produce moderate 
to locally fresh NW winds and building seas across the offshore 
waters north of Punta Eugenia tonight through Fri morning, as the
front enters the area and dissipates. Rough seas of 7 to 9 ft 
accompanying the cold front will propagate southeastward through 
Fri, with peak seas of 10 to 11 ft expected north of Punta 
Eugenia by Fri evening. High pressure will build modestly across 
the area waters this weekend in the wake of the cold front, and 
troughing will prevail in the Gulf of California. As a result, 
moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds will develop in the Gulf 
of California and off the coast of southwestern Mexico by early 
Sat, and across the waters offshore of Baja California Sat 
afternoon into early Sun. Fresh NW swell will enter the Baja 
Norte waters Sat night and spread southeastward into early next 
week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong NE winds are occurring across the Papagayo region tonight as
strong high pressure continues over eastern Mexico, the southern
Gulf of Mexico and into the NW Caribbean, behind a stalling front 
lingers from central Cuba through northern Honduras and central 
Guatemala. Rough seas to 8 to 9 ft in merging NE and NW swell 
prevail across this area. Elsewhere W of Papagayo, fresh to 
locally strong N winds and rough seas continue along the eastern
edge of a significant Tehuantepec gale-force wind event that is  
impacting the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala with
strong N winds and high seas to 11 ft. The associated NW swell 
has reached offshore of Papagayo tonight. Moderate to locally 
fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, 
moderate S to SE winds are occurring south of 04N offshore of 
Ecuador and Colombia, with light to gentle winds occurring 
elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. North of the trough away 
from strengthening gap winds, light to locally moderate winds 
prevail. Seas range from 4 to 6 ft in predominantly SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE gap winds will occur in the
Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat morning as strong high 
pressure persists over eastern Mexico and the southern Gulf of 
Mexico, in the wake of a stalling Caribbean front. Winds across
the Papagayo region will then pulse to strong speeds each night 
into early Mon, with moderate to fresh winds occurring each night
thereafter through at least the middle of next week. Elsewhere, 
fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas occurring along 
the eastern edge of a strong Tehuantepec gale- force wind event 
will continue to impact the offshore waters of southwestern 
Guatemala through Fri. Winds offshore of Guatemala will diminish
late tonight with seas produced by the NW slowly subsiding 
through Fri night. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse across 
the western Gulf of Panama each night through this weekend. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure northwest of the area along has collapsed, as a 
weakening cold front has moved across the northern waters and 
extends from the coast of Southern California to 25N136W. 
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are occurring along and behind
the front E of 130W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate 
anticyclonic winds are noted north of 25N. South of 25N and west 
of 120W, moderate to fresh trades are occurring north of the 
monsoon trough, with strong winds occurring from 10N to 20N west 
of 130W, where peak seas are 12 to 13 ft. A broad swath of seas 
of 8 to 11 ft are occurring north of 01N and west of 118W as NW 
swell combined with residual swell north of the ITCZ. To the 
south of the ITCZ, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 
ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the broad area of rough seas from NW swell and
trade wind-generated swell will continue to produce rough seas in
excess of 8 ft north of the equator and west of 115W through Fri.
Peak seas around 13 ft are expected in the far western waters 
between 10N and 20N west of 135W in the zone of strongest trade 
winds. N to NE swell generated by gale-force winds in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec and strong winds across Papagayo region will 
propagate westward over the coming days, reaching areas north of
05N by Fri morning. Rough seas from the aforementioned sources 
will combine in the central waters between 110W and 120W on Fri. 
Seas will slowly subside downwind of Tehuantepec this weekend, 
but residual rough seas will prevail south of 20N and west of 
110W. Additionally, a series of cold fronts moving north of the 
area will continue to generate and reinforce seas in excess of 8
ft for most areas north of the ITCZ through the middle of next 
week. Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from north of 
the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W. Farther east, moderate to locally 
fresh trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to around 15N 
between 105W and 120W. An E to W ridge will move into the area 
waters along about 27N over the weekend to maintain fresh trade 
winds from 20N to the ITCZ into early next week. 

$$
Stripling