AXPZ20 KNHC 312206
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 31 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends westward from the Panama/Colombia
border to 07N92W. Scattered moderate convection is present south
of this trough from 01N to 07N between the Colombia coast and
92W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N92W to 05N121W, and from
04N130W to 04N140W. Another surface trough is between the ITCZ
segments near 07N126W. Scattered showers are evident up to 50 nm
south of the first ITCZ segment east of 110W, and near the second
surface trough from 05N to 10N between 121W and 130W. Aided by an
upper-level trough in the vicinity, scattered to numerous
moderate convection is flaring up near the first ITCZ segment
from 03N to 12N between 110W and 120W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A modest surface trough is coupling with divergent flow aloft to
trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the
coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero States, Mexico. Moderate with
locally fresh northerly winds are present west of Baja California
and the Gulf of California. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in NW swell are
noted west of Baja, while seas of 2 to 4 ft mainly composed of
wind waves exist in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate N
to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail
across the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico.
For the forecast, residual large NW swell west and southwest of
Baja California will continue to decay through Sat, and subside
to moderate Sat night. Moderate with locally fresh northerly
winds will persist across Baja offshore waters, and the Gulf of
California through Sun night. Gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will increase again west of Baja California and at the Gulf
of California Mon through mid week as another cold front
approaches the region from the north.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Enhanced by a mid-level trough, convergent surface winds are
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near and
off the colombia and Ecuador coast, and near the Galapagos
Islands. Recent satellite scatterometer and altimeter derived
data indicated fresh to strong ENE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas off
the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to
7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of
For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will
continue to support fresh to strong easterly gap winds across the
Gulf of Papagayo and Nicaraguan coast through Tue, and fresh NE
gap winds at the Gulf of Panama through Mon. Winds at Papagayo
will peak at near-gale force at night. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. Moderate long-
period southerly swell will persist in all the offshore waters
the next several days. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will
linger near the Galapagos Islands, and off the coast of Colombia
and Ecuador tonight.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A subtropical ridge north of 25N related to a 1025 mb high
pressure near 32N125W is supporting a large area of moderate to
fresh NE to ENE trade winds from 05N to 23N west of 120W, with 6
to 10 ft combined seas in a mix of local wind waves and mostly
longer- range NW swell. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds with
seas at 6 to 7 ft in decaying NW swell are evident north of 23N
west of 120W. Gentle breezes are noted east of 120W and south of
05N, with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed NW and S swell. Refer to the
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for weather
in the area.
For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will strenghten further
this weekend and cause trades from 05N to 23N west of 120W to
become fresh to strong. The upper-level trough mentioned in the
Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section should
induce a surface trough near 05N120W on Sat. This feature will
transverse slowly westward and maintain showers and
thunderstorms just north of the Equator. Looking ahead, a new
group of northerly swell will enter waters north of 25N starting
late Mon night or early Tue following another cold front moving
into the region.