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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 090405

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front will move across 
the Gulf of Mexico Friday, resulting in a gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region beginning Sun morning. Winds will likely reach
storm force by Sun night while seas will quickly build to 20 ft.
Afterward, gale winds with seas to 12 ft will continue through 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at and for details on the special


The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 09N84W to 08N87W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N87W to 07N110W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 104W and 


Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for an upcoming
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. 

Strong high pressure N of the area continue to extend a ridge SE
across the Baja California region. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and a surface trough along W Mexico continue to support
moderate to fresh NW winds along the Baja offshores along with
seas in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell, being the strongest
winds and highest seas N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds
are elsewhere, except for locally moderate in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas in the Gulf of California are 1 to 3 ft and 5 
to 8 ft in mixed swell across the remainder offshore waters.

For the forecast, long-period NW swell will persist off Baja 
California and the Revillagigedo Islands through the weekend. 
Strong winds will develop mainly in the north and central Gulf of
California this weekend, producing rough seas. A strong cold 
front will move across the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, resulting
in the development of gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec on Sun and storm-force winds Sun night. Gale force 
winds will prevail thereafter through mid week. Very rough seas 
are expected in the Tehuantepec region through the gap wind 


Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Gulf of 
Papagayo with seas to 7 ft. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south
with seas in the 4-5 ft range. Moderate N winds are pulsing in
the Gulf of Panama while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere
along with seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue to
pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo each night through the forecast
period. Gentle to moderate breezes will pulse across the Gulf of
Panama region through Sat night. 


High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N. Fresh to strong 
trade winds persist south of the ridge, mainly 10N to 25N W of 
122W. Seas in this region are 10 to 13 ft, in a mix of seas due 
to the trade wind flow and long-period NW swell. Gentle to 
moderate winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the area
through early next week. Large, long-period NW swell will 
continue to move across the all the forecast waters. Seas to 13 
ft are expected from 07.5N to 19.5N and W of 124W through the 
weekend, while seas of 7 to 11 ft will prevail elsewhere. This 
swell will gradually decay this weekend. Looking ahead, the next
NW 12 ft seas swell event may beginning by the end of next week.