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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



112 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050215
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Aug 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 80W/81W, north of 06N into Panama, 
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted north of 06N between 78W and 83W.

A tropical wave axis is along 119W/120WW from 01N to 17N, moving 
west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed from 08N to 11N 
between 118W and 121W.

A tropical wave axis is along 128W from 01N to 17N, moving west 
at 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a moist unstable environment. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 
127W and 130W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 09N78W in Panama 
to 11N106W to 12N124W. The ITCZ extends from 11N130W to 11N137W 
to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed 
from 06N to 10N between 89W and 95W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 05N to 14N between 78W 
and 104W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends 36N151W to 34N131W to 28N119W. A trough is 
analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula. The gradient 
between these two synoptic features will continue to support 
moderate to fresh northwest to north winds, west of Baja 
California, and north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night through Sat 
night, with seas building to 6-8 ft.

Prevailing south to southeast winds in the Gulf of California 
will persist through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 3-5 ft.

Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse 
briefly to strong speeds at night through Thu, with seas to 6-7 
ft. Winds are expected to increase again this weekend. Model 
guidance indicates stronger winds, reaching to near gale force, 
along with higher resultant seas, Sat night through early Mon.

Developing Low pressure may track northwestward over the western 
part of the offshore waters between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
Manzanillo this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is along 09N east of 90W. Moderate south to 
southwest winds continue south of the trough axis, with light 
and variable winds occurring north of trough.

Tropical waves migrating westward from the Caribbean Sea across 
Central America into the eastern Pacific are helping to induce 
convective activity across the area. The tropical wave along 
80.5W is forecast to be near 87W Wed night, and reach to near 
95W on Fri. Global model guidance suggests that this wave may 
develop into a low pressure system across the eastern Pacific 
within a few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a broad ridge across northern waters and 
lower pressures in the tropics near the monsoon trough will 
support moderate to fresh trade winds from 12N to 26N, west of 
125W through the remainder of the week, with seas expected to be 
in the 5-7 ft range.

Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell producing seas of 
7-8 ft is forecast to reach near 01N and the offshore waters of 
the Galapagos Islands on Fri.

$$
Mundell