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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



278 
AXPZ20 KNHC 020413
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A ridge across the eastern 
slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western
Gulf of Mexico currently supports a gale-force gap wind event 
across the Tehuantepec region. Seas are forecast to build to near 
12 ft tonight. The gale force winds will persist trough early 
Fri morning. Then, strong to just below gale force winds are 
expected on Fri, extending downwind to about 11N, before winds 
increase again to gale force Fri night through Sun night as the 
high pressure strengthens again across the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Winds could increase to 40 kt by Sat night with seas to 
around 13 ft. Winds are then expected to gradually diminish Mon 
and Mon night. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

Pacific Gale Warning: A strong cold front is now reaching the 
far NW corner of the forecast region. A pre-frontal trough
extends 30N135W to 23N140W. Strong to minimal gale-force winds 
and large seas will follow the front forecast to reach from 
30N127W to 26N140W by early Fri morning. Seas will build to 15-16
ft behind the front in mixed NE wind waves and strong NW swell. 
Gale conditions are expected to end early Fri morning as the 
front moves slowly southward and the pressure gradient relaxes. 
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N100W to 1011 mb low
pressure located near 12N118W to 09N119W. The ITCZ continues 
from 09N119W to 09N130W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is from 12N to 17N between 114W and 
119W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between
78W and 111W and from 07N to 12N and W of 122W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for the gale-force gap wind
event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore forecast waters of
Baja California as a 1018 mb high pressure remains located near 
27N120W. Seas are 3-5 ft. Light winds and seas 3 ft or less 
prevail inside the Gulf of California. Elsewhere across the 
remaining Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec 
region, mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are 
noted. Scattered showers are noted south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will persist in the Tehuantepec
area through Sun night, dipping below gale-force for a few hours
on Fri afternoon. A cold front is expected to approach the Baja 
California Norte waters on Sat, and will dissipate on Sun before 
reaching the area. Accompanying large NW swell will reach the 
Baja Norte waters Fri evening, with seas building to 7-9 ft N of 
Punta Eugenia Fri night, before slowly subsiding by Sat. High 
pressure will build across the Baja region Sun night through Mon 
and freshen the winds across the Baja California waters. Gentle 
to moderate winds and slight seas are forecast in the Gulf of 
California through the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE-E winds are blowing across the Papagayo 
region and downwind to near 90W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 
ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere N of the 
monsoon trough along 07N, with seas of 4 to 5 ft while moderate S
to SW winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are seen to the S of the trough. 
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail off the Ecuador offshore
waters to the Galapagos Islands with seas 4 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds over the Papagayo 
region will persist trough Sat, then mainly moderate to fresh
winds are expected through Mon. Elsewhere, little change in the 
marine conditions is forecast. Mainly gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, 
Colombia, and Ecuador. Seas will subside modestly during the 
upcoming weekend, except in the Papagayo region. NW swell 
generated from a significant Tehuantepec gap wind event will move
across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador early 
Fri through Sun night. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section for information on the cold
front entering the NW forecast waters. 

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered across the NE forecast waters
near 28N120W, and extends a ridge south and southeastward that 
covers roughly the waters N of 18N between 108W and 132W. This 
system is producing a light to gentle anticyclonic flow across 
the area. A 1011 mb low pressure remains embedded in the monsoon
trough near 12N117W. Some shower activity is noted N of the 
center. The pressure gradient between this low and high pressure 
to the N supports an area of fresh NE winds from 13N-20N between 
115W-120W. Seas are 6-7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere N of 
the monsoon trough gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft 
are noted. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds winds and seas
of 6 to 7 ft are seen S of the monsoon to the equator and W of 
120W.

For the forecast, the pre-frontal trough will move slowly SE across
the NW waters into Fri. A strong cold front will follow the 
trough. Strong to gale-force NE winds are expected behind the
front. Winds will drop below gale-force early Fri morning, with
the strong winds dissipating by Fri night. The front is forecast
to dissipate on Sun over the northern forecast waters. At the 
same time, a reinforcing cold front will weaken along 30N Sun. 
High pressure behind that front will strengthen winds to fresh to
locally strong across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 
115W on Mon. A weak high pressure center will persist over the NE
waters through Sun. The low pressure along the monsoon trough 
will open up into a trough by Sat and will continue to move 
westward on Sun. 

$$
AReinhart