AXPZ20 KNHC 092252
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1821 UTC Sun Aug 9 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 17.0N 106.4W at 09/2100
UTC moving WNW at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted
within 60 nm of the center of Elida. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 103W and
109W. Elida is expected to continue to intensify as it moves WNW,
reaching hurricane strength by Mon. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml
and Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for more details.
A tropical wave axis is near 80W, extending southward from the
western Caribbean across Panama to 03N. The wave is moving
westward at 15 kt. Active convection is noted where the tropical
wave and monsoon trough are interacting. This tropical wave will
be monitored over the next several days as it has the potential
to act as a precursor for tropical cyclone development. There is
a near zero probability of cyclogenesis in the next two days, but
there is a medium probability within the next five days.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N86W to 08N92W to
11N99W. It continues from 12N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 87W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N
to 12N between 101W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 06N to 13N between 110W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the special features section above for more on
T.S. Elida. The system will bring increasing winds and seas over
portions of the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto
Vallarta into Mon, before impacting the Revillagigedo Islands Mon
and Tue. Heavy rainfall, rough surf, and dangerous rip currents
are possible over coastal areas as well.
Aside from T.S. Elida, moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
over much of the waters off Baja California north of Punta
Eugenia, supported by the pressure gradient between high pressure
west of the area and lower pressure over Mexico. Gentle to
moderate northerly flow continues from Punta Eugenia southward to
Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are noted south of Baja
California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are noted in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate SE winds continue across the
Gulf of California.
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the
waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will diminish through Mon. Fresh
to strong northerly winds will pulse for the next several nights
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough.
Fresh to locally strong gap winds, enhanced by the tropical wave
in the western Caribbean, prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo.
Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range.
The moderate southerly winds will persist south of the monsoon
trough for the next several days. Fresh to occasionally strong
winds will prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the
middle of next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the special features section above for more
information about T.S. Elida.
The subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N.
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted north of the
monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 120W, with gentle to
moderate breezes elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Tropical
Storm Elida is forecast to reach hurricane intensity and move
into the discussion waters on Tuesday night into Wednesday,
bringing an increase in winds and seas.
Farther south, monsoon flow has freshened south of the monsoon
trough between 100W and 120W. The locally generated wind waves
has combined with a subsiding southerly swell, maintaining seas
in the 6 to 8 ft range roughly from 05N and 10N between 105W and
Looking ahead, the active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation
will be propagating across the eastern North Pacific forecast
waters. This feature will produce a favorable large scale
environment for active convection which will elevate the
potential for tropical cyclone development in these waters over
the next couple of weeks. The National Hurricane Center will
closely monitor this situation.