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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280402
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
Fresh to strong gap winds are going to begin at the Gulf of 
Tehunatepec late tonight as a ridge builds across the eastern 
slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold 
front currently moving across the Gulf of Mexico. These winds 
will increase quickly and reach gale force by early Thu morning. 
Seas under these winds will build and peak at 12 to 14 ft by Thu 
evening. Swell generated by this gap wind event will spread 
southwestward, creating seas of 8 to 11 ft reaching as far west 
as 100W and as south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and seas 
should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon. 

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local 
fishermen need to monitor this upcoming gap wind event, and take
necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends westward from the Panama-Colombia
border across 04N110W to a 1011 mb low near 04N126W. An ITCZ 
runs westward from 03S120W to 00N136W, then continues
northwestward to beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate 
convection is noted near the trough from 01N to 07N between 87W 
and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near the low
and ITCZ from 05S to 05N between 120W and 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

High pressure of 1026 mb located near 29N129W dominates the
offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The associated ridge
reaches the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is supporting 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas in 
moderate NW swell across the waters W of the Baja California
peninsula. Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are 
present at the southern Gulf of California, while light to gentle
winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are evident for the rest of the 
Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are 
seen near the coasts of Jalisco and Colima, including water near 
Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft in moderate NW swell prevail for the rest of the Mexican 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, a gap wind event is expected in the 
Tehuantepec region beginning late tonight, then quickly reach 
gale-force by early Thu morning with seas building to rough 
level. Gale conditions are forecast to persist through Fri 
morning, with seas peaking at high level Thu night. The pressure 
gradient between a surface ridge across the eastern Pacific, and 
lower pressure over Mexico will support fresh to strong winds and
rough seas at the central and southern Gulf of California, and 
near Cabo Corrientes until early Thu morning. A strong cold front
is forecast to enter the offshore waters of Baja California and 
northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing with it increasing 
winds and large NW swell. This swell could generate high seas at 
the outer offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moist, convergent SW to W winds are triggering isolated to
scattered showers near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle 
with locally moderate S to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail 
across the offshore waters of central America, Colombia and 
Ecuador. Visible satellite imagery indicates slight concentration
of smoke from agricultural fires along and near the Pacific 
coast of Central America, from Costa Rica to Guatemala. These 
fires are common in this geographical region during the dry 
season, and can have a strong influence on weather and climate. 

For the forecast, convergent southwesterly winds along with 
abundant moisture will continue to support sporadic showers and 
thunderstorms near the Galapagos Islands and in the Costa Rica 
and Panama offshore waters through at least Fri. Winds and seas 
could be higher near thunderstorms. Otherwise, light to gentle 
winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the entire 
region through Thu night. Starting Fri, increasing gap winds and 
rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of Panama 
as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, swell 
generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause rough
seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a frontal
boundary is approaching 30N140W. The pressure gradient between 
this ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ 
maintains moderate to fresh trades along with 8 to 9 ft seas 
from 07N to 20N west of 125W, confirmed by the most recent
scatterometer data. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow is evident
across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 120W due to the
presence of a 1026 mb high pressure located near 29N129W. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will weaken further through
tonight as a weakening front moves across the NW and north-central
waters. This will allow trade winds from 07N to 20N west of 125W
to diminish. Residual NW swell will still big enough to keep 7 
to 9 ft seas in this area until Thu. A strong cold front will 
enter the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte on Fri, 
followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas. 

$$

Chan