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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 300945

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to low pressure near 09N111W 1009 mb to 05N131W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted around the low pressure from 
06N to 14N between 107W and 113W. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 04N to 12N between 91W and 106W and from 06N to 
10N between 114W and 125W. 


Moderate N-NW winds are noted across the Baja California 
offshore waters N of 20N, becoming N to NE from 20N southward 
through the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 7 ft in fading 
NW swell across the Baja waters. Fresh to locally strong N to NW 
winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California with gentle to
moderate winds in the southern Gulf. Seas are to 4 ft inside the
Gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec, where seas are in
the 5-7 ft range. Thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters
of Guerrero. Pressure gradient from the high pressure across the
Gulf of Mexico continues to weaken. Strong winds continue across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec but diminishing in coverage with seas to
6 ft. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec today. High pressure will build across the Baja
California offshore waters today, bringing moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters through Fri. NW
swell will move across the Baja California offshore waters later
today into tonight north of Punta Eugenia. The swell will reach
as far south as 26N, bringing seas between 8 to 10 ft through Fri
night. This swell will linger across the far northern Baja
California offshore waters through the weekend and into early
next week.


Fresh E-NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region and extends to
near 91W, and moderate offshore winds extending across the 
waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of Fonseca. 
Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle offshore 
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle SW
winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-7 ft 
prevail across the area waters in mixed swell. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are still lingering across the near and 
offshore waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across 
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu 
night, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate W to NW swell
across the regional waters will continue today. Moderate
southerly swell will approach the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
offshore waters late weekend and into early next week. 


High pressure NW of the area waters extends across waters N of
18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure 
and the remnant trough of Ramon near 16N1312 to 098130W, as well
as the monsoon trough and ITCZ, is supporting moderate to fresh 
winds N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 26N and west of 110W.Gentle
to moderate winds are noted N of 26N to 31N.  Light to gentle 
winds are N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the discussion waters W 
of 100W, with seas in the 7-9 ft range in fading NW swell. Seas 
of 6-7 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure NW of the area will continue
to build SE across the region today. This will tighten the
pressure gradient between the high pressure and the ITCZ/monsoon
trough. This will bring fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 
25N into the weekend. NW swell across the waters from 10N and 25N
will continue to move westward across the waters through the 
next few days. The swell area will expand in coverage by the 
weekend as winds increase. The NW swell impacting waters N of 29N
between 121W and 127W will shift eastward towards the Baja
California waters over the next few days, lingering through the
weekend. Swell impacting waters south of 10N will subside by the