AXPZ20 KNHC 012122
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 1 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 05N85W to 01N115W TO 02N140W. A second
ITCZ is south of the Equator, extending from 03S85W to 04S110W to
02S120W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N
between 100W and 120W, and from 06S to 03S between 110W and 120W.
Of note: During March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is
present in the southern hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin,
especially during La Nina events, when the cold equatorial sea
surface temperature are stronger.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6
ft. Similar wind speeds are noted in the southern Gulf of
California while light and variable winds are noted in the
central part of the Gulf. Gentle southerly winds prevail in the
northern part of the Gulf of California. Seas are generally 1 to
2 ft. Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range are seen near the entrance to
the Gulf of California, and between Los Cabos and Las Marias
Islands. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
For the forecast, a weakening cold front will move across the
offshore waters of Baja California Norte on Sat. Strong high
pressure will follow the front. As a result, fresh to locally
strong NW winds will develop W of the Baja California peninsula
by early next week. NW swell preceding the front will build seas
to 12 ft W of Baja California Norte beginning on Sun. This swell
event will propagate across the entire Baja California offshore
waters by Sun night. At that time, seas of 8 to 11 ft are
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
High pressure over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to
strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region.
Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate N winds are in
the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to near 04N, along with
seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas continue.
For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region
tonight, then again Sat night with seas building to 6 to 8 ft.
In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3
to 5 ft will prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds are expected with seas of 4 to 6 ft through Sun,
then subsiding to 2 to 4 ft toward mid-week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters N of 15N and W of
110W. A cold front stretches from 30N127W TO 26N140W. A swell
event is in the wake of the front, building seas to 8 to 12 ft
over the NW corner of the area. Fresh to locally strong trade
winds and seas to 8 ft are affecting mainly the area from 13N
TO 18N W OF 135W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds based on
altimeter data. Altimeter data also provide observations of 8 to
9 ft seas S of 14N between 105W and 130W enhanced by SW swell.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the
remainder of the basin.
For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE across
the northern forecast waters over the next 24 to 36 hours while
weakening. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the
front. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the front,
with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected to reach
the waters NW of a line from 30N118W to 22N130W to 18N140W by
Sat afternoon. This swell event is forecast to spread across most
of the waters N of 05N and W of 115W by Sun night with seas
subsiding below 12 ft.