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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



411 
AXPZ20 KNHC 080236
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Howard is centered near 18.4N 111.7W at 08/0300
UTC moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Seas near and north of the center range from 12 to 15 ft. 
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 
210 nm in the north semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted between 60 nm and 240 nm in the 
southeast quadrant. Gradual strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, followed by weakening.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP4.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP4.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 85W north of 03N to across
Costa Rica and Nicaragua into the NW Caribbean Sea, moving west 
at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 86W and 93W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 130W from 03N to 17N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 126W and 133W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 08N95W to 13N102W, then extends from southwest of 
Tropical Storm Howard from 12N114W to 11N120W to 13N129W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N to 13N between 94W and 101W, and from 08N to 13N
between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 11N between 114W and 123W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details
Tropical Storm Howard.

Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring well offshore of
Baja California Norte where seas are around 6 ft. Moderate SE 
winds are in the northern Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 4
ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
where seas are to 7 ft. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere outside of Howard, locally moderate north of Cabo
Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of the
waters, except 3 ft or less in the central and southern Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, aside from the impacts from Howard, fresh to 
strong winds will pulse over the Tehuantepec area through early
Thu. Otherwise, and once Howard departs the waters, fairly
tranquil marine conditions will prevail through the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh to strong winds are in the Papagayo region and offshore
Nicaragua, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 
mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.
Scattered thunderstorms are offshore from the Gulf of Papagayo
northward to El Salvador.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong in the Papagayo region through Tue, then
pulsing to moderate to fresh through Thu night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
Tropical Storm Howard.

A broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters north of the
monsoon trough. Trades are moderate to fresh north of the 
monsoon trough to 26N and west of 125W between the ridging and 
passing tropical waves, with N-NE moderate to fresh winds north
of 26N between 120W and 130W. Gentle to moderate trades are
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate to 
locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and
west of 110W, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 
3 to 5 ft north of 26N and west of 125W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere
outside of Tropical Storm Howard, except to 8 ft in the west-
central waters.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is 
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 
1000 nautical miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
Some gradual development of this system is possible through the 
middle part of this week while it moves generally westward into 
the central Pacific basin.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail north of 26N
and west of 125W through the early part of the week. Moderate to
locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and west of 120W, with gentle to moderate winds across the
remainder of the open waters. Seas of 3 to 5 ft will prevail 
north of 26N and west of 125W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft will dominate 
the remainder of the open waters, building to 7 to 9 ft over the 
west-central waters through mid-week with a fresh and elongated 
fetch of trades. Seas may also build to around 8 ft near 03.4S 
early in the week in a southerly swell.

$$
Lewitsky