AXPZ20 KNHC 261605
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 26 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A tropical wave is along 97W, from 02N to 15N, moving west at
around 10 kt. Precipitable water animations and wave diagnostics
show a clear wave signal propagating westward off of Central
America the past couple of days. Associated convection is
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 11.5N72W
to low pres 1010 mb near 11N83W to 10N87W to 10.5N113W to low
pres 1012 mb near 12N121W to low pres 1014 mb near 12N133.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 08.5N135W to 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted N of 04.5N E of 81.5W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
07.5N to 14.5N between 93W and 109W, N of 16N to Mexican coast
between 101W and 106W, and from 07.5N to 16.5N between 111W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Fresh to strong N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
this morning, extending downwind to near 14N96.5W. Associated
seas across the area are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds are noted
west of Baja California and in the central Gulf of California.
Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft
across the remainder of the open waters, and 2 to 4 ft in the
Gulf of California, except 3 ft or less in the northern Gulf.
Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon morning. Mainly moderate NW-N
winds will prevail west of Baja California, pulsing to fresh
during the afternoon through evening hours. S-SW winds will pulse
to moderate to fresh in the northern Gulf of California.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Large NW swell
will impact the waters west of Baja California by late Tue.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, with
light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range from offshore of Colombia
northward, and 6 to 8 ft in SW swell offshore of Ecuador.
Moderate to fresh offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo
region, occasionally to strong. Otherwise, light to gentle winds
will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with mainly moderate
winds south of the monsoon trough. Cross equatorial SW swell will
continue to propagate through the regional waters through early
Tue, and expected to peak early this evening.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A surface trough extends from 24N130W to 17N131W. Associated
convection has dissipated. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds
are northwest of the trough. Broad and weak ridging and gentle to
moderate trades dominate the remainder of the open waters north
of the convergence zone. Gentle to moderate southerly winds
prevail south of the convergence zone. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft
range north of 11N, and 6 to 7 ft south of 11N, except to 8 ft
between 93W and 125W.
Winds associated with the trough along 130W will diminish
through late Sun as it shifts westward and weakens. A cold front
is expected to move into the NW waters Mon night into early Tue
and quickly weaken as it moves southward and gradually dissipates
along 21N by the end of the week. Associated long period NW
swell is expected to build seas to 8 to 11 ft to the west of
120W, spreading southward through the middle of this coming week.