AXPZ20 KNHC 190843
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jan 19 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gale warning Thu for Pacific waters near 25N135W: A vigorous mid
to upper level low is centered near 26N138W, with an mid to upper
trough reaching from the low to near 15N120W. Divergence aloft
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 16N between
125W and 131W, and scattered showers and thunderstorms from 14N
to 17N between 115W and 119W. Squalls and locally rough seas are
possible near the thunderstorms. The upper pattern is supporting
the development of a 1011 mb surface low pressure area near
16N135W. The low will deepen over the next couple of days, just
as high pressure builds farther north. The tightening gradient
between the low and high pressure will allow for strong to near-
gale force winds from 22N to 30N between 130W and 140W Wed into
Thu, intensifying to gale- force winds near 25N135W by late Thu
with seas building to 16 ft. The low pressure and associated
gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds and seas will
diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 06N87W to 11N128W to 07N140W. Scattered
convection from 14N to 17N between 115W and 119W, and scattered
to numerous convection is observed from 10N to 16N between 125W
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A scatterometer satellite pass from around 0430 UTC along with
recent ship observations confirmed gentle to moderate N to NE
winds over Mexican offshore waters north of 20N. Fresh to strong
winds near the coast over the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing
this morning. Gentle to moderate E winds elsewhere south of 20N.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft in most areas over open waters. The gentle to
moderate winds are associated with weak high pressure over the
waters north of 20N.
For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds near the coast over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec are diminishing this morning. A cold
front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico later this week
will likely cause gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec region
Fri night through Sun. High pressure will build west of the Baja
peninsula through the weekend and should produce fresh to strong
NW winds across the Gulf of California starting on Thu and
continuing through Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
High pressure north of the area is supporting strong NE to E gap
winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to 30 kt off
Papagayo. Seas across that are 8 to 9 ft. Fresh N winds are
present over the Gulf of Panama with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere
winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3 to 5 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through Sun night. Fresh to strong N
winds will continue through tonight over the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec should
affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat and Sun.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA
Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
A recent scatterometer satellite pass from 06 UTC shows a large
area of fresh NE winds within 300 nm north of a 1011 mb low
pressure area centered near 16N135W. A concurrent altimeter
satellite pass shows seas approaching 8 ft in this area. Gentle
to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are
elsewhere across the region.
For the forecast, low pressure will deepen over the next couple
of days as it moves westward, and as high pressure builds north
of the area. This pattern will support a large area of fresh to
strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within
300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W
by early Thu afternoon. By Thu night, the low will move west
140W and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft
Thu and Thu night from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.