AXPZ20 KNHC 251530
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 25 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Pacific Significant Swell Event: Altimeter satellite data from
early this morning indicate that combined seas of 10-14 ft are
found over much of the tropical Pacific, mainly from 05N to 20N,
west of 120W. Fresh to strong trade winds are present from the
ITCZ to 25N and west of 115W based on the latest scatterometer
satellite data. Seas generated from the large area of trades are
mixing with longer- period NW swell. The winds will diminish
slightly, allowing the wave heights to subside below 12 ft
through late Sun. Large NW swell to 16 ft will also impact the
waters off Baja California Norte into Sun, but this will also
subside through Sun night. Looking ahead, yet another NW to N
swell event with seas of 12 ft or greater may propagate south of
30N by the middle of next week behind a weakening cold front.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 06N105W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N105W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 07N to 09N and between 110N and 112W,
from 06N to 08N between 118W and 122W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A tight gradient between low pressure over the Colorado River
Valley and 1039 mb high pressure over the northeast Pacific Ocean
is supporting winds to gale force off southern California. Strong
NW winds are reaching as far south as Guadalupe Island, off Baja
California Norte, along with wave heights reaching 10 to 11 ft. A
recent altimeter satellite pass confirm wave heights in excess
of 8 ft west of 110W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 9 ft seas
likely persist between Los Cabos and Cabo Corrientes as well.
Farther south, light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft combined
seas in mixed SW and NW swell.
For the forecast, a strong ridge will persist across the region
through early next week. Expect fresh to locally strong NW to N
winds through Sun morning, with pulses of fresh to locally strong
winds also over the southern Gulf of California and near Cabo
Corrientes. NW swell reaching 8 to 11 ft offshore Baja California
will linger through today, becoming reinforced by another group
of NW swell expected to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia
this afternoon with seas of 10 to 15 ft and the highest waves
will be beyond 90 nm. This swell will decay late Sun. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds may develop in the northern
Gulf of California Wed ahead of an approaching cold front.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
An earlier scatterometer satellite data captured moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and offshore
waters of Nicaragua. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate
to locally fresh northerly winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama,
along with seas of 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight seas prevail.
For the forecast, fresh to strong gap easterly winds will pulse
nightly across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua
tonight through late next week. Seas will build to 7 to 8 ft by
the middle of next week in this area. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event.
Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that fresh to
locally near gale-force easterly winds cover most of the tropical
eastern Pacific, mainly north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. The
strongest winds are found near 11N125W. Seas in these waters are
8-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring near the area of
strongest winds, and this includes a component of long period NW
swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds and
rough to very rough seas will diminish late this weekend as the
high pressure weakens ahead of a cold front approaching from the
northwest. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail elsewhere. The cold front is forecast to move
eastward across the waters north of 25N Tue and Wed.