AXPZ20 KNHC 132157
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2130 UTC Mon Jul 13 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Six-E is centered near 16.6N 112.6W at
13/2100 UTC moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
exists within 180 nm in the SW semicircle. The system should
continue this general motion for the next few days. Some slight
strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on
Tuesday.Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP1.shtml for
The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, from SE Mexico
southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 90W and 97W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in
association with this tropical wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 09N84W to 10N110W to
10N140W. Aside from the convection noted in the tropical waves
and special features sections, scattered moderate convection is
noted north of 07N east of 83W as well as from 08N-11N between
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
See Special Features section above for details on Tropical
A low pressure trough deepening over Baja California is
producing fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California
today and tomorrow with peak seas around 5 ft.
A Tehuantepec gapwind event may occur beginning on Friday forced
by high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico. While current guidance
suggest near- gale conditions late Friday and early Saturday,
peak seas are anticipated to reach around 8 ft due to the limited
area and duration of these gap winds.
No significant long-period swell are expected in the Mexican
offshore zones for at least the next several days.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo
region through Friday, with locally strong winds likely during
the overnight and early morning hours. Peak seas Tuesday through
Friday should be 6 to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh monsoonal SW winds will prevail over the
waters S of 10N through mid-week with peak seas near 5 ft.
No significant long-period swell are expected in the Central
American and equatorial offshore zones for at least the next
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
See Special Features section above on the fast moving low
pressure well south of Mexico that has a medium potential of
tropical storm formation into Wednesday. This low is expected to
track west along roughly 17N this week.
The remnant low of Cristina continues as a 1008 mb low near
21N130W. A Scatsat scatterometer pass this afternoon showed that
30 kt peak winds continue in the northern semicircle. Scattered
showers persist within 120 nm of the center. The low should
gradually wind down and open up into a trough by Wednesday. Peak
seas are currently near 12 ft, dropping to near 8 ft by Wednesday
before moving west of our border by Thursday.
A 1031 mb high is centered well northwest of our waters near
40N148W with ridging extending southwestward to 27N120W. The
pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough to the
south is forcing NE moderate to fresh trades northwest of the
the remnant low of Cristina. Moderate S winds south of the
monsoon trough between 110W and 120W are combining with some SW
swell to produce combined seas near 8 ft. These will progress
westward before diminishing on Friday.