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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



305 
AXNT20 KNHC 040552
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
120 PM Tue Aug 04 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye 
of Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina 
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with 
maximum sustained winds of 75 kt or 85 mph (140 km/h).

At 04/0300 UTC, Isaias was centered near 33.8N 78.5W or about 22 
nm ENE of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina moving NNE at 19 kt. The 
estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained 
winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous 
moderate convection is noted north of 31N between 75W-80W. 
Maximum seas expected with this system can reach 26 ft.  

On the forecast track, the center of Isaias will move across 
eastern North Carolina for the rest of the night.  The center 
move near or along the coast of the mid-Atlantic states on 
Tuesday, and continue across the northeastern United States 
Tuesday night.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and 
Forecast/Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W from
03N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The majority of this 
wave is embedded with deep tropical moisture associated with the 
African monsoon trough that extends into the eastern Atlantic. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-14N between 
18W-23W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 34W
from 02N-18N, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. This wave is
embedded within deep tropical moisture also associated with 
the monsoon trough in that area of the Atlantic. Scattered 
showers are noted along the wave axis mainly south of 10N. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based 
on current satellite signature and wave diagnostics data. The 
wave's axis is analyzed along 45W from 00N-16N. Scattered 
showers are noted along the wave axis and within 45 nm on 
either size of it. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W from 
00N-19N. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N 
between 73W-78W. There are scattered showers in the vicinity 
of the northern portion of the wave also. This activity is 
enhanced by a diffluent flow aloft. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast Africa near 
20N16W to 10N30W to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends west of a tropical 
wave from 07N49W to 06N58W. Aside from the convection described 
in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate 
convection  is within 300 nm south of the monsoon trough and 
along the whole ITCZ. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, ancjored by a 1015 mb 
high  centered near 28N93W. Latest scatterometer data depicts 
light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the whole area, with 
seas ranging between 2-4 ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are 
noted over the Bay of Campeche, moving west with the thermal 
trough that develops across the Yucatan peninsula every night. 
This activity will dissipate during the morning hours.

The weak high pressure ridge will persist over the N Gulf this 
week,  maintaining gentle flow across much of the region with 
moderate winds expected in the southwestern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave over
the central part of the basin. 

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail north of 18N and 
west  of 75W enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft. To the 
south, the EPAC monsoon trough extends along 10N between 75W-83W 
enhancing shower activity across this area. Scatterometer data 
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except south 
of 15N between 66W-72W,  where moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are noted.

The Bermuda High north of the area along with the eastward 
extension of the NE Pacific monsoon trough will contribute 
toward fresh to strong E trades over the central Caribbean 
through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. No 
tropical cyclone formation is expected in these waters for the 
next several days. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Isaias and 
the tropical waves moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are noted over the west Atlantic mainly west 
of 74W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 28N65W to 
24N65W. Although a weak area of low pressure is expected to form 
over the next day or so from this trough, abundant dry air 
surrounding the system is likely to limit significant tropical 
development. A stationary front enters out area from 31N51W to 
29N59W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Surface 
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by 
a 1022 mb high centered near 22N50W. 

Large seas north of 29N associated with Hurricane Isaias will 
spread northward across the waters west of 75W during the next 
few hours and then gradually subside late tonight through Tue 
night. The trough along 65W will move NW across the west 
Atlantic through today. 

$$
ERA