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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 171053

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
653 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09.5N14W
to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from that position to 00N33W and 
then extends to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered 
showers is noted between 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between
15N and 40N.



A ridge extends from 1020 mb high pressure over the northeast 
Gulf of Mexico to the coast of Texas. The ridge is supporting
gentle to moderate southeast winds, with seas 2 to 4 ft over the
western Gulf and 1 to 3 ft in the eastern Gulf. Dewpoints are in
the lower 70s over the northwest Gulf in the area of moist 
southeast flow. Areas of sea fog in the northwest Gulf are 
noticeable in satellite imagery and among some of the observations
from regional platform observations with visibilities ranging from
3 to 5 nm.

The ridge will shift east Sun night ahead of a cold front moving
off the Texas coast offshore Texas Mon. The front will extend 
from the Florida Big Bend area to Veracruz Mexico early Tue, just
as a reinforcing push of cold air moves off the Texas coast. The
reinforcing front overtakes the first front late Tue, accompanied
by strong winds and building seas over the northern Gulf. The
merged front sweeps southeast of the Gulf by early Wed. Winds and
seas diminish across the Gulf through late Wed as high pressure
follows the front across the northern Gulf.


The undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, located north of Grenada 
near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of 
Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km / 3.1 nm exclusion 
zone around Kick 'em Jenny. Please see for further

High pressure centered near the Bahamas is supporting fresh to
strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean, off the
coast of northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia. Seas
in this area are 8 to 10 ft as observed in recent altimeter
satellite passes. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere
with mostly 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate trades are noted east of the
Leeward and Windward Islands, but buoy and altimeter satellite
passes indicate 8 to 10 ft seas, likely in northerly swell.
Regional radar shows isolated showers across the Windward

A weakening cold front will pass through the Yucatan Basin late 
Tue night. High pressure building behind the front will allow
fresh to strong easterly winds near the Gulf of Honduras Mon
night into Tue. 


A cold front is reaching 30N, between 67W and 70W, accompanied by
few showers and thunderstorms, fresh to strong W to NW winds and 
seas of 8 to 12 ft as noted in recent buoy and altimeter reports. 
Farther south, a stationary front is weakening to a trough from 
from 23N65W to the Windward Passage. 1021 mb high pressure is 
centered off the northern Bahamas near 26N75W is maintaining 
generally light to gentle winds across the region outside the area
of fresh to strong winds near the cold front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft 
in open waters primarily due to northerly swell. 

The cold front will shift east of the area through this morning,
along with the strong winds. Seas of 8 to 12 ft will linger
through into Sun north of 28N east of 70W. W winds will increase
north of 28N late Sun as low pressure moves off the Carolinas
along another cold front, shifting east of the area through late
Mon. Southerly winds will increase off northeast Florida and
north of the Bahamas late Mon, then increasing further to near 
gale force north of 27N with 8 to 12 ft seas by Tue night as the 
low pressure moves off the Carolina coast.

Over the eastern Atlantic, 1024 mb high pressure is centered near
29N37W, and this is maintaining gentle flow over the subtropics
and moderate to fresh flow in the deep tropics. Trade wind
convergence is supporting scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms along and north of the ITCZ. Recent altimeter 
satellite passes are showing seas 8 to 11 ft in primarily NW 

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