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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



397 
AXNT20 KNHC 012312
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning:
The tight pressure gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure
located off the Mid-Atlantic coast and the Colombian low will
sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-
central Caribbean into early next week. These winds will pulse to
gale-force off the northwestern Colombia coast mainly during the
nighttime and early morning hours tonight and Sat. The most
recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds over the
central Caribbean, with a few wind barbs of 35 kt near the coast
of Colombia. Seas near and just downwind of these strongest winds
are expected to reach 11 or 12 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: 
A very strong high pressure of 1037 mb is well north of the area
over the northern Atlantic and just over the western Azores. A
tight pressure gradient between this high and a broad surface
trough across northwestern Africa is resulting in gale-force
winds, with severe gusts, in the Meteo-France Marine Zone of
Agadir, near the coast of Morocco. Seas are 11 to 13 ft per an
altimeter pass in association with these winds, forecast to
persist through tonight.

Please read the latest High Seas Warning issued by Meteo-France 
at website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for
more details.

Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Expect increasing winds and building seas northeast of the
Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda into early next week between
strong high pressure north of the area and a broad trough between
45W and 55W north of 22N. This pattern will support strong to
near gale force NE winds, with wave heights of 12 to 17 ft. These
marine conditions will cover roughly the waters N of 25N W of the
trough to about 62W by Sat morning when the trough will be along
47W/48W, and N of 23N W of trough to about 62W by Sun morning
with the trough axis along 49W. Looking ahead, the high pressure
north of the area will move northeast while the trough weakens
through the early part of the week, allowing winds to diminish
slightly and wind directions to veer more easterly. This will
allow the swell to subside below 12 ft by Tue.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal borders
of Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then extends generally southwestward
across 04N25W to 02S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 00n to 05N between 15W and 20W. A 
cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted farther E from
02S to 03N between 02W and 05W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is analyzed along the northern Gulf states
from N Florida to SE Louisiana where a 1017 mb low pressure is 
seen. Showers and thunderstorms are near this system. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A 
warm front extends from this low to another weak low pressure of
1016 mb located over the NW Gulf near 27N93W. A trough runs from
the latter low center to 20N95W. Moderate NE winds are over the 
NW Gulf while moderate NW to N winds prevail W of the trough. A 
ridge extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf producing 
gentle to moderate SE to S winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary over 
the northern Gulf into Sat as the low pressure lifts to the 
northeast over the area. Another low pressure area will form over
north-central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward 
as a warm front over the northwest Gulf. Looking ahead, expect 
moderate SE winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern 
Gulf Mon into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a
trough over the southwest Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for details about the
Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

A tight gradient between a 1038 mb high pressure off the Mid-
Atlantic coast and a 1011 mb Colombian low sustains fresh to 
strong NE to E winds outside of the Gale Warning area and 
moderate to rough seas across the central part of the basin, 
including waters near the Windward and Mona Passages. Moderate to
fresh NE winds and moderate seas are seen across the eastern 
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate
seas prevail over the NW portions of the basin, including the 
Gulf of Honduras. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across 
the region, particularly over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The
NE winds across the western Atlantic will continue to transport 
pockets of low level moisture, with embedded showers, across the 
Greater Antilles during the upcoming weekend. 

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over the
western Atlantic will support fresh to strong NE to E winds over
the central Caribbean and off Honduras, reaching gale force off
Colombia through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish overall in
the early to mid part of the week, except fresh to strong winds 
will continue to pulse off Honduras and Colombia at night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning 
in the eastern Atlantic and the Significant Swell event over the 
central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N70W, transitioning to a 
stationary front that continues to near the Florida/Georgia
border. Mainly fresh NE winds and rough seas are N of the front.
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are S of 
the front and NE of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds 
are near the entrance to the Windward Passage. A strong 1038 mb 
high pressure located off the Mid-Atlantic states follows the 
front and dominates the western Atlantic and Florida. A surface 
trough is analyzed near 50W and N of 22W. This trough is the 
surface reflexion of an upper-level low spinning near 25N50W. 
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on either side of the 
trough. Another strong high pressure of 1037 mb located over the 
western Azores dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast 
waters. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present 
around the southern circulation of this system, mainly from 19N 
to 35W and E of 40W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will 
dissipate through early Sat. Expect increasing NE winds and 
building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda 
into early next week between high pressure north of the area and 
a broad trough between 45W and 55W north of 22N. Looking ahead, 
the trough will dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the 
northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas 
will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into mid week. 

$$
GR