000
AXNT20 KNHC 180533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Gambia/Guinea-Bissau, then extends southwestward to near 08N20W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from 
01N to 07N between 16W and 23W. There is no ITCZ present north of
the Equator based on the latest analysis.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A board surface ridge extends west-southwestward from northern
Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Thick cirrus related to
convection across eastern Mexico is streaming over the northern
Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 
ft are present north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern 
Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted for the rest of the southern Gulf, except the
western Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3
ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf,
including the western Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain moderate to 
fresh SE winds Gulf-wide through Sun morning, except for strong 
ENE winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula and 
south-central Gulf at night. A cold front is forecast to move 
into the northwestern Gulf Sun afternoon, and reach from Tampa 
Bay to 25N90W to SW to 22N95W Mon morning, then exit the Gulf Mon
evening. Moderate to fresh NE winds will follow the front, 
briefly reaching strong over the northeastern Mexico offshore 
waters Sun evening. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Bermuda High north of the Bahamas continues to channel trade
winds across the entire basin. A surface trough over the Dominican
Republic is coupling with a pronounced upper-level trough
originated from the northwestern Atlantic to trigger scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Dominican Republic and
nearby waters. Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated
thunderstorms at the northeastern basin. Fresh with locally strong
NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the south-
central basin, near the Cayman Islands and Windward Passage, and 
south of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and 4 to 6
ft seas are found near the ABC Islands and at the Gulf of
Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will sustain fresh to locally 
strong easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage 
and off northwestern Colombia at night during the next few days. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere in the basin. The 
pressure gradient will relax somewhat during the weekend and into 
early next week as a frontal boundary exits the southeastern U.S.
coast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 18N59W through a 1013 mb low near
22N58W to 29N54W. Aided by strong divergent flow aloft, scattered
moderate convection is flaring up from 20N to 29N between 50W and
58W. Tight gradient between this low and the 1022 mb Mid-Atlantic
High near 31N46W is generating strong to near-gale force NE to SE
winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft from 21N to 25N between 55W and 59W.
Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms near the coast of northeastern Brazil and French 
Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional 
convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the aforementioned winds and seas near the 1013 mb low,
gentle to moderate ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate
easterly swell are noted from 20N to 26N between 55W and the
Bahamas/southern Florida coast. For the rest of the sub-tropical 
Atlantic north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 
Georgia/northern Florida coast, the Bermuda and Mid-Atlantic 
Highs are promoting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in 
gentle to moderate swell, including the Canary Islands. Near the 
Cabo Verde Islands, gentle NNE to NE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are
found from 07N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 28W. 
For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 28W and 
the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades and seas 
at 6 to 8 ft exist. Light to gentle monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the 
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda High will persist over the
waters east of northeastern Florida through Sun. The pressure 
gradient between the 1013 mb low and Mid-Atlantic High will 
maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds east of the Bahamas,
Great Bahama Bank and approaches of the Windward Passage through
Thu night. The low will move east of the area Thu morning and 
winds over this region will diminish to moderate. Moderate to 
fresh southerly winds will develop over the Florida offshore 
waters north of Freeport on Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast 
to move off northeastern Florida Sun evening. These winds will 
become strong Sun night and diminish to moderate to fresh Mon.

$$

Chan