397 AXNT20 KNHC 132251 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale force again tonight into early Friday morning near the coast of NW Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 24N96W to 20N97W. The front will continue to move SE reaching from near Tampa Bay to 24N96W to just S of Veracruz by tonight, then begin to drift southeastward. Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with gales developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico through early Fri morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected along with the gales. Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens and eventually lifts north as a warm front. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 01N29W. The ITCZ then extends from 01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 200 nm of both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of America. Please see the Special Feature Section above for information. A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 24N96W to 20N97W. Strong to near-gale force N winds follow the cold front, along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh SE flow is present for the remainder of the basin ahead of the front, with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, the front will move SE tonight and reach from near Tampa Bay to 26N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri morning, then begin to stall and weaken. Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with brief gales developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico, and offshore of Veracruz early Fri morning. The stalled front will begin to lift northward Fri afternoon and out of the area Fri night into Sat. Another cold front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing another round of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun afternoon and night behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please read the Special Feature Section for details. The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1029 mb high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces fresh to strong E winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean. Seas across much of the Caribbean are 6 to 10 ft, locally up to 11 to 12 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, outside of the gale area, the pressure gradient between a broad high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through the weekend. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the highest winds. Fresh to strong E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and eastern Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic waters through Sun morning, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Atlantic Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sun through early Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W to 26N47W. Moderate northerly winds and sea of 8-11 ft are N of the front. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located in the north-central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of 23N. These winds are supporting rough seas across much of the Atlantic south of 24N. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through Sun morning as the Atlantic ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight. A cold front will move into the NW waters early Fri, bringing fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas N of 28N and W of 60W. The cold front will stall E to W along about 28N on Sat, then weaken and begin to drift northward Sat night, accompanied by strong southerly winds across the NW zones. Another cold front will exit the SE U.S. late Sun and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue. $$ ERA
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Page last modified: Friday, 14-Feb-2025 02:52:42 UTC