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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)


397 
AXNT20 KNHC 132251
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high 
pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low 
pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support 
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale 
force again tonight into early Friday morning near the coast of 
NW Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the
west of the highest winds.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 24N96W to 20N97W. The front will
continue to move SE reaching from near Tampa Bay to 24N96W to 
just S of Veracruz by tonight, then begin to drift southeastward.
Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with gales 
developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico through early Fri
morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected along with the 
gales. Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens 
and eventually lifts north as a warm front.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by 
the National Hurricane Center, at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and 
continues southwestward to 01N29W. The ITCZ then extends from 
01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is present within 200 nm of both sides of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of 
America. Please see the Special Feature Section above for 
information.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
24N96W to 20N97W. Strong to near-gale force N winds follow the 
cold front, along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to 
fresh SE flow is present for the remainder of the basin ahead of 
the front, with 4 to 7 ft seas. 

For the forecast, the front will move SE tonight and reach from 
near Tampa Bay to 26N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri 
morning, then begin to stall and weaken. Strong N to NE winds will
prevail behind the front, with brief gales developing this 
evening offshore Tampico, Mexico, and offshore of Veracruz early 
Fri morning. The stalled front will begin to lift northward Fri 
afternoon and out of the area Fri night into Sat. Another cold 
front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing another round 
of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible offshore Veracruz, 
Mexico Sun afternoon and night behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please 
read the Special Feature Section for details. 

The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1029 mb 
high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces
fresh to strong E winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean. 
Seas across much of the Caribbean are 6 to 10 ft, locally up to 
11 to 12 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, outside of the gale area, the pressure gradient
between a broad high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic 
along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through the 
weekend. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the 
west of the highest winds. Fresh to strong E to NE trade winds and
rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and 
eastern Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic waters through Sun 
morning, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Atlantic 
Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Looking 
ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sun 
through early Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the
basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W to 
26N47W. Moderate northerly winds and sea of 8-11 ft are N of the 
front. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical 
ridge located in the north-central Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep 
tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of 
23N. These winds are supporting rough seas across much of the 
Atlantic south of 24N. The strongest winds and highest seas are 
found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and 
moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
will prevail south of 25N through Sun morning as the Atlantic 
ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also 
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight. A cold front
will move into the NW waters early Fri, bringing fresh to strong 
NE winds and rough seas N of 28N and W of 60W. The cold front will
stall E to W along about 28N on Sat, then weaken and begin to 
drift northward Sat night, accompanied by strong southerly winds 
across the NW zones. Another cold front will exit the SE U.S. late
Sun and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon 
afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue.

$$
ERA
  

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Page last modified: Friday, 14-Feb-2025 02:52:42 UTC