AXNT20 KNHC 250356
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jan 25 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A 1010 mb low pressure located near 24.5N34W that resides along a
robust surface trough extending from the low to 19N34W is
supporting gale-force winds as confirmed by recent ASCAT
scatterometer data. These winds have generated seas of 8 to 14 ft,
highest near 27N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 20N to 28N between 28W and 36W. These
winds are forecast to be in the process of diminishing this
evening. Please refer to the latest Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast at website:
etarea2 for more details.
The monsoon trough extends across the African Continent along
roughly 06N to the coast near Liberia at 05N08.5W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N08.5W to 02N20W to the equator near 39W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
the equator to 07N between 24W and 33W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from the equator to 12N between 17W and 23W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1008 mb low pressure area is analyzed offshore of Texas near
27N94W. A developing warm front extends northeast of the low to
south of the Gulf coast of Louisiana and to near 29.5N88W. A
developing cold front extends southwest of the low through
24N96.5W to near Tampico Mexico and inland across portions of
northwest Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is spreading
across the northwestern half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds
are noted in the vicinity of the low with building seas to 6 ft,
locally higher in any deeper convection. A surface trough is
analyzed in the western Gulf from 23N96.5W to 19N95W. Another
surface trough is analyzed along the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is noted elsewhere in
the Gulf west of 90W, except W-NW winds west of the developing
cold front, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. A pair of 1017 mb high
pressure centers are located over the Florida Peninsula, one near
Tampa Bay at 28N82W and the other near Everglades City near
25N81W. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds are east of 90W, except
light east of 84W.
For the forecast, the low pressure in the NW Gulf will move
across the northern and eastern Gulf through Wed. This low and its
associated cold front will be strong to near gale-force
winds, higher seas, and thunderstorms to the region. High
pressure will bring more tranquil conditions Wed night through Thu
night. Another cold front is forecast to move into the Gulf Fri,
and will likely bring near-gale conditions to portions of the Gulf
Fri night and Sat, along with building seas.
Strong winds continue within 90 nm of the Colombian coast, due
to the tight gradient between high pressure north of the basin
and a 1007 mb low over northern Colombia not far from Bogota. Seas
are building in the area of strong winds, currently at 7 ft. No
other significant surface features are noted across the basin.
Fairly clear skies are noted, except for some isolated showers in
the northeast and north-central Caribbean, with isolated to
scattered showers possible offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Moderate to fresh trades are noted elsewhere, except gentle to
moderate north of 17N and east of 83W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft
elsewhere in the central Caribbean, 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean,
and 3 to 5 ft in the eastern Caribbean.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure in
the central Atlantic and lower pressure over northern Colombian
will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean
through Fri night. Generally gentle to moderate trades will
prevail elsewhere. A cold front may approach the NW Caribbean Fri
and bring fresh to strong winds with building seas through the
Please see Special Features sections for information on a Gale
Warning east of 35W.
A 1009 mb surface low is located northeast of the Bahamas near
27N72W. A warm front extends northeast-east of the low through
29N70W to 28N66W, continuing as a cold front to 31N60W. A cold
front extends from the low to across the central Bahamas near
24N76W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 26N70W to near the
eastern tip of Cuba at 20N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are noted from 26N to 31N between 55W and
68W. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere in the
vicinity of the warm front and cold front. Moderate to locally
fresh winds are noted within 90 nm of the low and warm front,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of
50W. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft across this same area, except 3 ft
or less inside the Bahamas.
To the east, a pair of weak surface troughs are in the open
tropical Atlantic, one from 26N46W to 21N46W, and another from
17N36W to 11N42W with isolated showers possible in the vicinity of
both troughs. Otherwise, broad ridging noses into the open
tropical waters from 1035 high pressure over the Azores. Fresh to
strong winds are noted from 15N to 26N between the coast of
Africa and 30W, and elsewhere from 20N to 31N between 30W and 40W
around the gale-force low discussed above, along with 6 to 8 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed
northerly swell dominates the remainder of the basin.
For the forecast west of 65W, the low pressure northeast of the
Bahamas will move northeast and out of the region Tue. Its
trailing cold front will move east through the area through Tue
night, then dissipate. Another low pressure is forecast to move
offshore south Florida Wed. In the wake of this system, strong to
near gale-force northerly winds are possible Wed night into Fri
morning. A strong cold front is expected to emerge off the Florida
coast Fri night, bringing another round of strong to near gale-