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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 250101 CCA

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected 
NWS National Hurricane 
Center Miami FL 
801 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

Corrected for 48 hour tropical cyclone formation probability.


A broad, stationary 1009 mb surface low pressure system is 
centered over the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula near 19.5N88W, 
gradually becoming better defined. Scattered heavy showers and 
thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds are confined 
primarily to the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean 
Sea N of 18N W of 82W, including the Yucatan Channel and the 
Straits of Florida. Isolated showers and tstms associated with 
this system are already in the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and 
also extend to the Gulf of Honduras. Gradual development of this 
system is expected during the next couple of days as it drifts 
northward near the Yucatan Peninsula. Environmental conditions 
are forecast to become more conducive for development through 
early next week, and a subtropical or tropical depression is 
likely to form by late Saturday over the southeastern Gulf of 

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is forecast 
across western Cuba and over much of Florida and the northern 
Gulf Coast into early next week. In addition, the threat of rip 
currents will steadily increase along the Gulf coast from 
Florida westward to Louisiana over Memorial Day weekend. The 
chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours 
is high. The chance for tropical cyclone formation during the 
next 5 days is high.

A gale warning has been issued in the meanwhile starting 1800 UTC
Sat May 26 for the Gulf of Mexico within an area bounded 24N85W 
to 23N84W to 23N85W to 24N86W to 24N85W...including the Straits 
of Florida...SE to S winds 30 to 35 KT, with seas 9 to 12 FT.


A tropical wave is along 50W with axis extending from 12N49W to 
02S50W, moving west at 15 knots. The wave is in a moderate moist 
environment that is supporting isolated showers within 150 nm 
either side of the wave axis.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal, Africa near 
07N13W and continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-07N between 
07W-18W. Scattered moderate showers are within 180 nm either 
side of the remainder of the ITCZ. 



Surface ridging extends from the eastern CONUS and the SW N Atlc
into the northern and portions of the SE Gulf with a weakness in
that ridge analyzed as a surface trough from Pensacola, Florida 
to the coast of SE Louisiana to SE Texas offshore waters near 
Isolated showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough in 
the NW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the western half of 
the basin with seas in the range of 2 to 3 ft. On the eastern 
Gulf, however, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and 
a broad area of low pressure centered in the SE Yucatan 
Peninsula is supporting E to SE moderate to locally fresh winds 
being the strongest winds in the SE basin. The area of low 
pressure is generating showers and tstms in the region of 
strongest winds. Gradual development of this system is expected 
during the next couple of days as it drifts northward near the 
Yucatan Peninsula. Strong winds and building seas are expected 
east of this system. See special features section for further 


Please read the Special Features section above for hazards
associated with a tropical low centered in the SE Yucatan
Peninsula. Very moist conditions across the western half of the
Caribbean along with the east Pacific monsoon trough extending
across Panama to northern Colombia support scattered heavy 
showers and tstms within 75 nm of the coast of Nicaragua and 90 
nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. Otherwise, surface 
ridging extending from the central Atlc into the northern and 
eastern Caribbean continue to support moderate to fresh winds in 
the central and eastern basin and fresh to strong NE to E winds 
within 240 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh SE winds and 
building seas are expected the NW Caribbean N of 21N W of 86W 
this weekend associated with the developing low in the Yucatan 


Scattered to isolated showers are over the Florida Straits and 
the northern and central Bahamas associated with a developing 
tropical low in the SE Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the 
Atlc is under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered SW 
of the Azores Islands near 32N40W by a 1028 mb high. This high 
is supporting moderate winds in the Bahamas Bank and Atlc 
passages to the Caribbean. 

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