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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 272341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between strong high 
pressure northeast of the Azores combined with low pressure across
the Mediterranean Sea has induced gale force northerly winds near
the coast of Morocco that will persist through early Tue. Meteo- 
France is forecasting near-gale to gale force winds in the eastern
portions of the marine zones Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias. 
Expect northerly gales from 28N to 31N, between 13W and the coast 
of Morocco. Seas will build to the range of 15-20 ft by late Tue 
between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco.  Please read 
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website 
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for details.

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure centered near Bermuda will
continue to move slowly northeastward and strengthen modestly 
over the next few days. The pressure gradient between persistent 
low pressure in northwest Colombia and the associated ridge will 
create an expanding area of fresh to strong trade winds across 
the south-central Caribbean. Winds will increase each night, and 
are expected to reach minimal gale-force tonight within 90 nm of
the coast of Colombia. Seas with these winds are forecast to
be 8-11 ft. Winds will remain below gale-force during the day then
increase again to minimal gale-force again at night from Wed 
through Fri. Peak seas will build to 9-14 ft each night.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal plains of 
Liberia near 05N10W southwestward to below the Equator at 19W.
It continues to 02S27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near
03S36W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen 
west-northwest of the ITCZ from 03S to 01N between 36W and 46W. 
Scattered moderate convection is north of the trough within 30 nm
of line from 04N21W to 02N28W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure stretches from the western Atlantic to the 
eastern Gulf. The associated gradient is allowing for moderate to
fresh southeast to south winds across the basin. South winds 
locally of 20-25 kt are possible in the far western Gulf near 
Corpus Christi. Seas range from 3-4 ft over the eastern Gulf 
south of 26N, to 4-7 ft over the rest of the Gulf, except for 
higher seas of 6-8 ft in the NW Gulf.

Scattered to broken high clouds streaming eastward are noted 
north of 26N and west of 85W. These clouds are due to a very 
pronounced southern jet stream branch that stretches from the 
eastern Pacific Ocean northeastward and eastward across the 
northern Mexico and and most of Texas.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the eastern Gulf 
will shift farther eastward allowing a cold front to move into 
the NW Gulf of Mexico Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally 
strong southerly winds will prevail tonight over the western 
Gulf, then expand into the northern Gulf Wed. Patchy fog is also 
possible ahead of the front offshore Texas. The cold front will 
push into the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. It will then 
stall from near Tampa Bay to just north of Tampico, Mexico, Thu 
nigh before lifting back north as a war front on Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on the Gale Warning for the waters near the coast of Colombia 
starting tonight.

A weakening stationary front extends along the north coast of 
Hispaniola west-southwestward to the northern part of the 
Windward Passage. Broken low and mid-level clouds, some with 
light rain and isolated showers, are along and just inland some 
of the northern sections of Hispaniola. Isolated showers moving 
westward are inland the western part of Jamaica. Fresh northeast 
winds are over the Windward Passage and fresh to strong winds 
over the waters S of 13.5N to near the coast of Colombia between 
74W-76W as confirmed by a scatterometer satellite data pass this 
afternoon. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of 
the stationary front and relatively lower pressure in the 
Caribbean is sustaining moderate trade winds across the eastern 
part of the basin, mostly moderate northeast-east winds over the 
north-central waters and fresh east-southeast winds over the 
waters north of 18N and west of 85W. Seas range from 6-9 ft 
offshore of Colombia in the strong winds, and 3-5 ft elsewhere 
except for 4-6 ft seas from 15N to 18N between 72W-80W. 

Patches of moisture in the form of broken low and mid-level 
clouds along with scattered showers moving westward in the trade
wind flow are noted over the far northeastern Caribbean from 
south of Puerto Rico to near 16N and between 64W-67W. Isolated 
showers moving westward are elsewhere east of 70W and also from 
13N to 17N between 70W-77W. 

For the forecast, high pressure will slide east through the 
western Atlantic into late week, before building southward toward
the basin for the end of the week. Fresh to strong trades in the
south-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will expand to 
dominate much of the central and eastern basin as well as the 
Gulf of Honduras as the ridge builds south. Northeast to east 
winds will pulse to gale-force nightly offshore Colombia through 
at least Fri night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front is analyzed from near 31N50W, 
southwestward to 23N61W, to along the north coast of Hispaniola 
and west-southwestward to the northern part of the Windward 
Passage. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds and 
scattered light to moderate showers are noted within 180 nm 
southeast of the front to the south of 25N, and extend across the
Virgin Islands and into the north coast of Puerto Rico and the 
Dominican Republic. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level 
clouds with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen within 120 nm northwest of the front north of 26N. 
Similar clouds and precipitation activity is south of 21N between
63W-70W, including the waters vicinity of Puerto Rico and the 
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands. The latest scatterometer 
satellite data passes near front depict fresh to strong northeast
winds northwest of the boundary to near 62W from 21N to 28N and 
gentle to moderate east-southeast winds east of the front to near
49W. A strong 1033 mb high center is located well north of the 
area at 38N57W. A broad ridge extends southwestward from this 
high center to the Bahamas, then across Florida and to the 
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Broad anticyclonic wind flow is to the 
east of the stationary front.

The eastern Atlantic is dominated by strong high pressure 
of 1038 mb that is analyzed well north of the area near 39N21W. 
A ridge extends from this high southwestward to 30N48W. Between 
52W and the Lesser Antilles, winds are gentle to moderate in 
speed with seas of 5-7 ft. Moderate trade winds and seas 7-9 ft 
are between 30W-52W and south of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade 
winds and seas of 8-11 ft seas remain north of 20N between 
21W-45W. East of 21W, fresh to locally strong northeast winds and
peak seas of 10 to 11 ft continue. Moderate seas are in the 
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure north of the 
aforementioned weakening stationary front will slide eastward 
across the western Atlantic through Wed night. A cold front will 
move across the waters east of northern Florida Thu, then stall 
Thu night from around 31N70W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida, 
before lifting back north as a warm front Fri and Fri night. 
Strong east winds are expected north of the frontal boundary. A 
surface trough east of the area may lead to some strong 
northeast winds across the northeast forecast waters this 
weekend.

$$
Aguirre