000
AXNT20 KNHC 031011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W, then transitions to the ITCZ near 05N15W. 
The ITCZ continues west-southwestward to 00N48W. Scattered 
moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 05N between 10W and
12W.  

GULF OF MEXICO...

A trough persists along 95W over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the northern
portion of the trough, from 25N to 26N between 94W an 96W. A 
scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC indicated fresh to
strong winds across the southeast and south-central Gulf. This is
south of 1037 mb high pressure centered over the central plains. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft south of 25N, with seas to 8 ft near the 
Yucatan Channel. Seas north of 25N 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure will build over the 
southeastern United States and maintain fresh to strong NE to E 
winds over the S Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong SE return 
flow will set up in the western Gulf late today through Wed night,
accompanied by rough seas numerous showers and thunderstorms. 
Looking ahead, a weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf 
coast Thu afternoon, but will have only moderate to fresh NE winds
associated with it.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A scatterometer satellite pass from around 03 UTC indicated fresh
to strong NE winds over the northwestern Caribbean and across the
Windward Passage, between strong high pressure well north of the
region, and lower pressure over Colombia. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are also noted off Colombia, and the convergence of these
winds are supporting scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms along the monsoon trough off Panama and Costa Rica,
and between Jamaica and northeastern Nicaragua. Moderate to rough
seas are evident across the northwest Caribbean and moderate seas
elsewhere. 

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas 
over most of the northwest Caribbean and Windward Passage through 
mid week. The high pressure will weaken and shift eastward Thu, 
allowing winds and seas to diminish, although fresh to strong NE 
winds will persist south of Cuba and near Grand Cayman through Fri
night. Farther south, fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough 
seas will pulse off Colombia into Sat. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few showers and thunderstorms are evident within 60 nm east of 
a weak cold front reaches from 31N58W to 24N68W. A few
thunderstorms are active off the north coast of Hispaniola, and
at the base of a trough from the front to the north coast of
Haiti. Farther west, reinforcing cold front extends from Bermuda 
to the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted
ahead of the first front, with 6 to 8 ft seas north of 28N. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted west of the front, 
with 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere west of 60W. Farther east, the 
pattern is dominated by 1031 mb high pressure near the Azores. 
This pattern is supporting mostly fresh to strong NE to E winds 
to the east of 60W along with 6 to 9 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fronts will merge and reach 
from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by late today, from 28N55W to northeast
Hispaniola by late Wed, then stall and weaken through Fri. Fresh 
to strong and rough seas will follow the front south of 22N 
through mid week. A trough will follow the reinforcing front 
between northeast Florida and Bermuda through Wed, followed by 
fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell, north of 26N. 
High pressure will build across the waters north of 26N Thu, ahead
of another cold front off northeast Florida. Looking ahead, the 
front will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by Fri 
night, and from 31N55W to central Cuba by late Sat. 

$$
Christensen