AXNT20 KNHC 240005
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Feb 24 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will
emerge off the Florida coast this evening. Gale force SW winds
are expected ahead of the front across the northern waters, mainly
north of 29N and west of 66W, this evening through Sat afternoon.
Rough to very rough seas in W swell will follow the front, with
seas to 8 ft reaching as far south as 24N on Sun. Strong W winds
will spread across these same waters behind the front Sat through
Sun morning before wind and seas begin to diminish through Mon.
The front will stall from the central Atlantic to Hispaniola Tue.
Marine interests in the areas should plan accordingly. Please,
read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W to 03N24W to
00N32W. The ITCZ continues from 00N32W to 01S43W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 10S to 03N between 16W and 50W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
At 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Cape San Blas, Florida SW
to 26N90W to NE Mexico near 24N97W. Moderate to fresh WNW winds
are ongoing W of the front covering the NE gulf waters while
gentle to moderate SW winds are ahead of the front over the SE
basin. Seas in the 5-6 ft are over the NE basin while 3-4 ft seas
are ahead of the front. Over the western half of the basin, winds
are mainly moderate to fresh with 3-5 ft seas.
For the forecast, The front will reach the SE waters on Sat
morning, and will be southeast of the basin by Sat evening.
Surface high pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat
through early next week. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow
will set-up over the western Gulf Sun night through Wed ahead of
the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Wed
The pressure gradient between 1017 mb surface high SE of Bermuda
and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh
trades over the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean with
locally strong winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas over these
regions of the basin are in the 3-6 ft range. A weak pressure
gradient is over the western part of the basin due to a cold front
moving across the E Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida. This is
resulting in light to gentle variable winds and 1-3 ft seas.
For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will return to the
south-central Caribbean tonight and persist through the weekend,
strongest at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late
Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of
Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W Sun morning, then sink SE and
dissipate from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras Mon. High
pressure will strengthen across the western Atlantic Mon through
Tue night and produce fresh to strong trade winds across central
portions of the basin.
A 1017 mb high is centered just SE of Bermuda near 29N64W while a
cold front is coming off the NE coast of Florida this evening. Gale
force SW winds are occurring off NE Florida ahead of the cold
front along with 8-13 ft seas extending to 27N and 70W. Between
65W and 70W winds are moderate to fresh from the SW and seas are
7-8 ft N of 25N. E of the center of high pressure, a stationary
front extends from 31N52W to 22N56W with a trough extending from
the tail of the front to the Leeward Islands eastern offshore
waters. The remainder of the central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores high. Th pressure
gradient between the high pressure and a dissipating cold front
crossing the Canary Islands continue to support fresh to strong
NNE winds over the far subtropical eastern Atlantic, extending to
the Cape Verde Islands. Rough seas of 8-12 ft are over that
region, highest N of the Canary Islands ahead of the front.
For the forecast W of 55W, Gale force SW winds will persist ahead
of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W of
66W, through Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas in westerly
swell will follow the front, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far S
as 24N on Sun. The front will reach from 31N55W to Hispaniola on
Sun. Farther E, a stationary front extending from 31N54W to 22N56W
continues to weaken to a frontal trough. This system will drift
westward toward the Leeward Islands during the upcoming weekend.