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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 302341

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 75.8W at
30/2100 UTC or 470 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 17
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or 
greater are within 120 nm from the center in the northeastern 
quadrant, with peak seas of 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted from 10N to 18N between 65W and 80W. A westward motion 
will bring the system across the southwestern Caribbean Sea 
through Friday, crossing Central America Friday night, and
emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. 
The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening
is expected while the system crosses Central America. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website: and the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at for
more details.


The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 28W, from 
18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 04N to 08N between 22W and 30W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, from 17N southward, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 11N to 16N between 48W and 56W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W/76W, from 18N southward, 
moving W at 15-20 kt. Convection impacting the central Caribbean 
is described in the Special Features section for Potential 
Tropical Cyclone Two. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W 
to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 05N46W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ.


Low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N96W. 
Moderate winds prevail over the NW Gulf in the vicinity of the low,
with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft 
range over the NW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through 
the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night 
near and to the W of the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. 


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two.

Outside of winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two,
fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with
moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to
moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-11 ft
range over the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft over the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to 
11.6N 78.5W Fri morning, 11.3N 81.4W Fri afternoon, inland to 
11.3N 84.0W Sat morning, then west of area near 11.4N 86.5W Sat 
afternoon. A tropical wave located located along 55W is forecast 
to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the 
eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Any development of this 
system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and 
seas with this wave as it moves across the region. 


Outside of the tropical waves described above, the tropical and
subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high centered 
north of the area. An upper level low just off the SE US coast has
induced a trough at the surface, analyzed across the Florida 
Peninsula. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough 
axis. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas over
this area are in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7 ft east of 40W. South
of 20N, Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical
wave near 55W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, moderate to
locally fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to 
dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone
Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola 
and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a tropical 
wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the 
weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters S 
of 22N Fri night through Sun.