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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 250500

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC. 



A combination of strong surface high pressure ridging southward 
along the U.S. east coast and relatively strong low pressure over 
northern South America supports winds pulsing to gale force near 
the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night
during the evening and overnight hours through the end of next 
week while this surface weather pattern persists. The current gale
is forecast to continue until 12Z Sun morning over the area from 
11N to 12N between 74W and 76W, with corresponding seas of 9 to 12
ft. For more details please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC. This information can also be found at the following 

...GALE WARNING for the METEO-FRANCE areas...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
winds are forecast to develop this evening for the following 
areas: Portions of the AGADIR and TARFAYA zones adjacent to the 
coast of Morocco. The gales are expected to continue for the next 
days or so until Sun evening. Winds will become strong northerly 
Sun night through Mon night.


The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the African coast
near 08N13W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N33W 
to the northeast coast of Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is present within an area bounded 
by 01S05W to 03N28W to 06N14W to 01S05W.



Fair weather prevails across the entire Gulf of Mexico as 1022 mb
surface high pressure centered off the Atlantic coast of N 
Florida near 28N75W ridges westward across the Gulf. Abundant dry 
air prevails as ridging at the mid and upper levels of the 
atmosphere extends over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE 
surface winds are noted over the eastern and central Gulf, while 
SE to S winds are observed over the western Gulf. Sea heights are 
highest, near 7 ft, in the NW Gulf due to the longer fetch there. 
The area of surface high pressure is expected to gradually shift 
ESE during the next several days. The high will be reinforced by 
stronger ridging building S along the E coast of the United States
during this time frame. Developing low pres over the central 
plains states will tighten the pressure gradient over the Gulf and
cause winds to become fresh to strong on Tue. Surface troughing 
is expected to develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then 
migrate W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening and 
nighttime hours. Otherwise, fair weather is expected to continue 
through the weekend as dry air remains in place.


Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 
61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises
mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around 
Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page,, for 
additional information.

Relatively quiet conditions exist across the Caribbean Sea as 
mid- to upper-level ridging maintains a relatively dry and 
subsident weather pattern over the basin. Trade winds are 
strongest over the south-central waters N of the coast of 
Colombia. Winds are expected to reach gale force during the 
evening and overnight hours through Thu night and Fri morning. See
the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details. Otherwise, 
ridging extending southward from along the east coast of the 
united States will maintain moderate to fresh NE to E winds over 
the Caribbean basin through the first half of next week. Winds 
will be fresh to strong in the Windward Passage.


A slow moving cold front extends SW from 32N53W to 24N59W to 
22N62W, then continues as a weakening cold front to Puerto Rico. A
weakening cold front extends SW from 32N56W to 27N62W to 25N68W. 
The weakening front will merge with and reinforce the cold front.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along 
and up to 120 nm SE of the cold front N of 26N. The weakening 
front has little convection associated with it. West of these 
fronts, surface high pressure centered just E of Florida dominates
the area as NW to NE flow and cooler air covers the western 
Atlc. Expansive surface high pressure dominates the central and 
eastern Atlantic Ocean. A strong 1032 mb high is centered over the
E Atlantic just SW of the Azores near 36N31W with a ridge 
extending WSW to NE of the Leeward Islands near 22N57W. This high 
is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across a large portion 
of the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic waters N of the 
ITCZ and W of 25W.

The cold fronts currently over the west-central Atlantic will 
merge and slowly shift eastward, then stall, weaken and dissipate.
Another cold front will enter the far northwestern waters late 
Sun through Mon in conjunction with developing low pres SE of New 

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