AXNT20 KNHC 161757
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia
near 06N10W, to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 02N22W
02N33W 03N36W. A surface trough is along 36W/37W from 10N
southward. The ITCZ continues from 05N39W to 04N49W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N
southward between 20W and 50W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface ridge trough extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center
that is near 30N97W in east central Texas, to a 1028 mb high
pressure center that is near 24N98W in coastal Mexico, to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. An upper level ridge is
along 100W, from Mexico into Texas. The ridge is moving eastward
gradually, pushing any remaining upper level cyclonic wind
flow/trough more to the east and out of the Gulf of Mexico.
A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48
to 72 hours, as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas
to SE Louisiana by Monday evening, and toward the Florida
Panhandle by Tuesday evening. A low pressure system will move NE
from the coast of Texas on Wednesday, to the SE United States on
Thursday, dragging a new cold front across the Gulf waters.
Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate across the region
later on Friday, as the low pressure deepens in the SE part of the
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS CUBA, INTO THE NW CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A cold front passes through 32N71W, across Andros Island in the
NW Bahamas, across Cuba near 22N80W, to 21N81W. The front
continues as stationary from 21N81W, to NW Honduras. A surface
trough is along 20N81W 18N82W 15N82W 11N82W. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Atlantic Ocean
from 27N northward between 66W and 75W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the line that passes
through 32N63W to the coast of Cuba near 22N77W. Isolated moderate
rainshowers are in the Caribbean Sea to the W of the line that
runs from the Windward Passage, to Jamaica, to the coast of
Panama along 80W.
Rainshowers are possible elsewhere across the Caribbean Sea, in
scattered to broken areas of low level clouds. 24-hour rainfall
totals that are listed for the period that ended at 16/1200 UTC...
according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.23 in Freeport in the
Bahamas, 0.16 in Guadeloupe, 0.13 in Montego Bay in Jamaica,
0.12 in Trinidad, 0.04 in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands,
and 0.01 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.
The current stationary front will drift eastward across Cuba
today, reaching eastern Cuba on Monday. The front will dissipate
across the Caribbean Sea waters on Tuesday. Fresh northerly winds
are expected west of the front across the Gulf of Honduras
through Monday. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the
south central Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, with the
strongest winds near the coast of Colombia mainly at night.
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
An upper level trough passes through 32N35W to 24N39W to 16N50W,
and to 08N62W in NE Venezuela. Isolated moderate rainshowers are
from 22N to 29N between 34W and 41W. Possible rainshowers are in
the clusters of low level clouds that cover the areas that are
from 20N southward between 43W and 60W.
The southernmost point of a cold front reaches the Madeira
Archipelago. A stationary front continues southwestward, through
30N28W 25N40W 23N48W and 22N53W. Rainshowers are possible
elsewhere from 20N northward between 25W and 66W.
Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and
parts of Africa from 16N northward between 09W and 23W. This wind
flow is related to an upper level trough that is along the coast
of Africa from Mauritania to Morocco.
A cold front extends from 31N72W across the NW Bahamas to central
Cuba. The front will push E and extend from 31N70W across the
central Bahamas to central Cuba by this evening, from 28N65W to
eastern Cuba by Monday evening, and from 24N65W across the SE
Bahamas to eastern Cuba on Tuesday evening, and then stall and
dissipate in the SE waters on Wednesday. Expect increasing winds
and building seas across the waters N of the Bahamas on Thursday,
as a low pressure system deepens in the SE U.S.A.
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