AXNT20 KNHC 020953
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Dec 2 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
East Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure along a slow-moving
cold front will move to near 30N38W by this afternoon. Near-gale
to localized gale force N to NE winds are expected in the NW
semicircle of the low from late this morning through Sun morning
from 29N to 31N between 37W and 40W. Seas in this area will build
up to 17 ft by tonight. Winds and seas will begin diminishing Sun
afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 08.5N13W and continues southwestward to 03N30W
and to 02N39W. The ITCZ extends from 02N39W to 00N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 14W and
18W, and from 00N to 08N between 30W and 38W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front is slowly progressing eastward across the NW Gulf of
Mexico, and extends from Lake Charles, LA to NE Mexico near
23.5N98W. Divergence aloft and abundant moisture result in
scattered thunderstorms north of 29N near the coast between
Apalachicola, FL and south-central Louisiana. Isolated showers
are elsewhere over the NE and west-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Mexico to the east of
the front, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. West of the front,
moderate northerly winds and 3-4 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the cold front will reach from southeastern
Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico this evening, from the Florida Big
Bend to the Bay of Campeche Sun evening, from South Florida to the
south-central Bay of Campeche Mon evening, and extend from
central Cuba to near the northern Yucatan Peninsula and to the SW
Gulf on Tue before becoming stationary and dissipating by late Tue
night. High pressure will build across the area in the wake of
the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far
SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico from Sun through Wed. Moderate to
fresh northeast winds are expected Tue and Tue night from 22N to
26N west of 90W.
A strong high pressure system north of the Caribbean Sea supports
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-
central Caribbean Sea. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Elsewhere
in the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades and 6-9 ft seas
prevail. Fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas are over the eastern
Caribbean, with similar conditions in the Windward Passage and
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moderate E to SE
winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail.
For the forecast, the gradient resulting from strong high
pressure north of the area combining with relatively lower
pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and in northern Colombia
will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough
seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. As
the high weakens and shifts eastward, the area of fresh to strong
trade winds will diminish some Mon into Tue. A cold front is
expected to move into the northwestern Caribbean Wed and Wed
night, followed by fresh northeast winds.
Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic.
A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 32N37W to
22N50W and to 20.5N61W. A shear line then stretches from 20.5N61W
to 24N74W. Isolated showers are seen on satellite imagery near the
cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring north of the
cold front, while fresh E winds are north of the shear line.
However, moderate or weaker winds are evident under the ridge,
north of 28N and between 60W and 71W. Seas are 8-11 ft north of
the cold front, except for 11-13 ft north of 29N and east of 44W.
In the remainder of the area north of the cold front and shear
line, moderate seas prevail. Fresh easterly trades are observed
south of the boundaries, and between 60W and 75W, along with seas
of 5-7 ft. The exception is locally strong winds at the entrance
of the Windward Passage.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad
subtropical ridging. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8
ft are affecting the waters north of 27N and east of 20W, between
Morocco and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.
For the forecast west to 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
weaken as it moves southeastward through early this afternoon.
Fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough seas due to a
northwest swell in the wake of the front will gradually subside
through Sun. Strong high pressure centered well north of the
region will shift eastward and weaken into early next week in
response to a cold front that is expected to emerge off the coast
of northeastern Florida early on Mon. The front will reach from
near 31N74W to the northwest Bahamas and to near the Florida Keys
Mon night, and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N55W to
the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba by Tue night. Another
cold front is expected to move across the area Wed and Wed night,
followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building