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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 260553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its 
axis is along 39W, south of 15N and the wave is moving W around 
15 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the
past few hours, especially from 05N to 11N and between 35W and 45W.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to 
middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move over 
the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, 
and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and 
Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the 
progress of this system. The chance of tropical cyclone formation
is medium during the next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 
days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward 
Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Refer to the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 15N 
and moving W around 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the 
trough axis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 
15N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 47W and 
57W. This tropical wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall 
over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun night.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of The 
Gambia near 13N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N21W to
08N24W, continues from 07N26W to 04N32W to 07N38W and then from
07N40W to 06N48W to 09N54W and from 09N56W to 08N59W. Aside from 
convection associated with the tropical waves, clusters of 
moderate to isolated strong convection are noted along the west 
coast of Africa from Liberia all the way to southern Senegal, 
likely associated with the next tropical wave. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from SW Florida to the Mississippi coast.
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the 
trough axis, especially associated with storm activity over South 
Florida and the northern Gulf coast. Slow development of this
system could occur as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf
of Mexico over the next few days. The chance of development over 
the next 5 days is low.

Elsewhere, weakening storms that developed over the Yucatan 
peninsula are moving over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The rest of
the Gulf is dominated by a weak high pressure system that 
maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally 
fresh E-SE winds are found off NE Yucatan, mainly S of 23N and E 
of 92W and also over the offshore waters of SE Texas and NE 
Tamaulipas. Seas in this regions are 2-3 ft. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft are evident in the remainder
of the basin.

For the forecast, the trough of low pressure over the NE Gulf will
drift westward over the the next days, with possible slow 
development. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the 
Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, 
supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate 
seas. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Diurnal heating and abundant tropical moisture, in combination
with the eastern portion of the east Pacific monsoon trough that
extends from N Costa Rica to N Colombia, are producing a few
showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea.
The strongest storms are found over the offshore waters of NW
Colombia, Costa Rica and W Panama. Divergence aloft is also
generating some showers over the SE Caribbean Sea. The rest of the
basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. 

A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh 
trades across the central Caribbean, and primarily moderate winds
elsewhere, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the 
NW part of the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft over the south-central 
Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the 
northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over
the south-central Caribbean through Sun night as the Atlantic
ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong
tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic
waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed
and Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this wave over the
next several days as it moves generally westward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the
tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical
cyclone formation. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for
more details.

A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure near 30N74W
to SE Florida, resulting in scattered showers near the trough
axis. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found north of
the trough, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Another surface trough is
analyzed from 30N67W to 24N74W and it is producing a large area of
showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly within 220 nm SE of the
trough axis. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that some
of the strongest storms are producing fresh to strong S-SE winds.
Farther east, a small surface trough along 61W, from 29N to 32W,
is generating some storm activity near the trough axis.
Satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh to strong winds
with the strongest storms. The rest of the area W of 60W enjoys
mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft. The exception is
near the eastern Greater Antilles, especially S of 22N, where
moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft are present.

A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms due to low-level
convergence and divergence aloft is noted along 58W, from 23N to
28W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a robust
1035 mb high pressure system near 41N42W. The pressure gradient
between this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW
Africa results in fresh to strong trades south of a line from the
coast of Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Seas in this large area
are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 10N39W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extending from a 1017 mb low 
near 30N74W southwest to 27N78W and to West Palm Beach, Florida 
will drift westward during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic 
high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic 
near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue 
evening, then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed 
night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Expect a broad
surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the 
region.

$$
Delgado