000
AXNT20 KNHC 152324
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 15N, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted behind the wave from 14N to 17N between 73W
and 77W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 76W
and 81.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 06.5N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 
06.5N22W to 06N34W, then from 05.5N38W to 05N46W, and from 04N49W
to the coast of French Guiana at 05N53W. Isolated moderate
convection dots the basin from 03N to the ITCZ between 18W and
48W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Popcorn afternoon convection is intensifying across the NE third
of Gulf waters this evening, with strongest cells offshore of the
western Florida Panhandle. A low level wind surge associated with
an ill defined tropical wave has moved across the Yucatan
Peninsula today with late afternoon convection now developing
along the N and NW coasts. A narrow convergence line of showers
and thunderstorms extends from the western Bay of Campeche along 
96W northward to offshore of Tuxpan. The Atlantic surface ridge
extends across central Florida and into the NE Gulf producing
light to gentle winds across NE portions and slight seas, except
near convection. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin, with fresh SE winds across much of the Bay
of Campeche. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft W of 90W. 

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
persist westward into the NE and N central Gulf through the
upcoming week to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate 
seas over the central and western Gulf, with gentle to moderate 
SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin. Fresh 
to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening 
through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward 
across the region. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W, 
and extends inland across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras,
where strong thunderstorms and heavy rain area occurring. An upper
level trough across the NW basin is supporting moderate convection
aloft from south of Jamaica into interior portions of Hispaniola.
Fresh to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer 
data across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 7-10 ft to the E of 83W 
and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to 
prevail across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient persists between
high pressure to the north along about 30N and low pressure in 
the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are expected 
in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each
night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will 
expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean Tue through Wed
night after the passage of a tropical wave. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire tropical 
Atlantic basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 32N40W. The
ridge extends W-SW and across northern Florida, and continues to
transport significant plumes of Saharan Air across the basin waters.
Fresh trade winds prevail S of 22N between 34W and the Bahamas. Moderate
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found across this trade wind zone. wind of
moderate speeds or weaker trades and seas of 5 ft or less prevail
N of 22N. Fresh northerly winds are found N through NE of the Cabo
Verdes, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
persist south of 25N through the middle of the week as high 
pressure remains over the central Atlantic. Strong trade winds 
will pulse each late afternoon through evening north of 
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore 
of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails 
over the eastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the 
week. 

$$
Stripling