000
AXNT20 KNHC 200455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Apr 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0440 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern
Guinea-Bissau close to 11N15W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W, to the Equator along 27W, to 01S30W and 03S40W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through an Atlantic Ocean 1019 mb 27N76W
high pressure center, to an eastern Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb 27N84W
high pressure center, to the SW coastal areas of Louisiana. Broad
middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the area.
Broken to overcast middle level and upper level clouds are to the
west of the line that runs from the Florida Panhandle, to 26N86W,
to 18N95W in the SW corner of the area.

Fresh to strong E winds are within 150 nm of the northern coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate or slower SE winds are in much of
the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are from 21N to 26N
from 90W westward. Slight seas are elsewhere.

High pressure extending across the basin from the western 
Atlantic will prevail through Sat, with gentle to moderate winds 
in the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh in the SW half 
of the basin. Winds will pulse fresh to strong in the evenings NW 
of the Yucatan Peninsula through at least Sat evening. A cold 
front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf late Sat night into 
early Sun, stalling and dissipating near 23N early next week. 
Fresh to locally strong winds and building seas may follow the 
front through Sun night. High pressure will again dominate the 
basin by Tue and continue into Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1019 mb sub-tropical high persists near 28N72W, and is 
promoting a weakened trade wind flow across the basin. Fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted offshore of Colombia and
Venezuela, near the Windward Passage, and just south of the 
Dominican Republic. 

Slight to moderate seas are between 70W and 80W, and in the NW
corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are moving through the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 210 nm of the
coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 68W and 77W, including in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh NE to E winds are within 150 nm of 
the coast of Honduras from 83W westward. Moderate or slower winds
are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Broad high pressure N of the basin will support pulsing fresh to 
locally strong winds near the Windward Passage, S of the Dominican
Republic, and near the coast of northern Colombia through early 
Sun. Similar winds will return and pulse near northern Colombia 
Mon evening through Wed evening. Winds will pulse to moderate to 
locally fresh in the NW Caribbean through early Sun, then again by
mid-week. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, along
with slight to moderate seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 29N45W 26N50W 20N58W, curving to 10N61W
near the coast of NE Venezuela. A 1022 mb high pressure center is
near 32N31W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the east 
of the 29N45W 10N61W surface trough. Broad surface anticyclonic 
wind flow is to the west of the surface trough. A 1019 mb high 
pressure center is near 27N76W.

Moderate seas are everywhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Mostly fresh 
to some strong NE winds are within 200 nm to 300 nm on either side
of 21N18W 16N26W 14N33W 13N40W. Moderate NE winds are from 24N 
southward between 70W and 78W. Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm on
the NW side of the surface trough between 47W and 54W, and from 
22N to 25N between 59W and 65W. Fresh southerly winds are within 
240 nm on the SE side of the trough between 46W and 51W. Moderate 
or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. 

A surface trough from 22N55W to the NE Caribbean Islands will 
dissipate through Sat. Otherwise, high pressure from near Bermuda 
to E central Florida will prevail through Sun supporting mainly 
gentle to moderate winds. A cold front is forecast to move into 
the NW waters Sun night, reaching from 31N72W to near Jupiter, 
Florida Mon evening, from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Tue 
evening, then from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Wed evening. 
Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong near 31N, are forecast to 
accompany the front, along with building seas. Otherwise seas will
be mainly slight to moderate. 

$$
mt/jl