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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 202101

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.


Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is centered
near 31N70W. As the low moves northward, it will deepen 
and bring brief period of gale force winds N of 29N between 70W 
and 73W tonight. Meanwhile, rough to very rough seas will 
propagate into the northern waters west of the low tonight and 
spread south and east through the end of the week. Seas of 12 ft 
and higher will prevail N of 29N between 67W and 73W tonight 
through Thu. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at
for more details.


The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ passes off the
coast of Africa near 05N08W to 01N32W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N E of 37W.


High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1027
mb high near 26N91W. Gentle to moderate winds are over the far SE
Gulf. Light anticyclonic flow is in the vicinity of the high
center. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-4 ft
range in the far SE Gulf, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the area of high pressure will move eastward by
midweek as a cold front approaches the western Gulf. Ahead of 
this front, fresh to strong southerly return flow can be expected 
in the western Gulf Wed night into Tue morning. Seas will peak 
near 9 ft. These winds and seas will diminish late Thu as the cold
front moves across the Gulf Thu night through Sat. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds can be expected behind the front with 
moderate seas. 


A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to western Panama.
Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm west of the front S of 18N.
Seas in this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate winds, and
seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are elsewhere E of
the front.  

For the forecast, the front will move east through Wed before 
weakening by Thu in the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong N winds
and moderate to rough seas will follow the front from off SE Cuba
and SW Hispaniola to Costa Rica through Thu morning. Low pres N of
the area has loosened the pressure gradient across the central 
and eastern Caribbean waters, with fresh to strong winds in the 
south central Caribbean expected to diminish by Wed.


Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section about the Gale Warning in
the western Atlantic waters.

A 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 31N70W. Associated cold
front extends from the low to near 27N70W to eastern Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the front N
of 26N. Fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm W semicircle of the
low as well as within 90 nm east of the front N of 26N. Elsewhere
W of the front, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-10 ft
are found W of the front. Farther east, high pressure prevails.
Winds E of the front are mainly in the moderate to fresh range.
Seas of 7-10 ft are sound E of 50W, and 4-6 ft over the remainder
of discussion waters E of the front. 

For the forecast W of 55W aside from the gales, the area of low 
pressure will lift north of area this evening. The cold front 
associated with the low pressure will extend from 31N65W to 
Hispaniola on Wed morning and from 31N59W to the Anegada Passage 
Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected 
along this front through the end of the week.