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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 170557

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1257 AM EST Mon Feb 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0545 UTC.


...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

Gale force winds are expected near the coast of Colombia at night
during the next couple of nights, with winds to near gale force
during the day. The latest ASCAT pass from 17/0152 UTC shows near
gale force winds north of the coast of Colombia from 10N-12N 
between 74W-77W. Sea heights will range from 8 to 13 ft. Please 
read the latest High Seas Forecast, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or see the website for more details.


The monsoon trough passes through coastal Liberia near 05N09W to 
03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to the coast of Brazil near 
03S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen 
along the monsoon trough and ITCZ and extends from the Equator to
03N between 07W-37W.


At 170300 UTC, a 1016 mb low was located off the Mississippi 
coast near 29N88W. A stationary front extends west of the low to 
South Central Texas near 27N97W, and to the east along the FL
Panhandle to near 29N83w. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms 
are seen along the stationary front in the NE Gulf, N of 28N and E
of 88W. Broken clouds and isolated showers are seen from 23N-30N 
between 84W-97W. Areas of fog and low ceilings are observed in the 
latest observations near the coastal areas of Louisiana westward 
to 98W. Forecast shows the potential for dense fog tonight with 
Dense Fog Warnings in effect through the early morning hours. A 
trough is in the western Bay of Campeche from 23N94W top 19N95W. 
ASCAT data and surface observations depict gentle winds across 
most of the basin, with moderate winds in the NE Gulf. Seas range 
from 2 to 5 ft.

A cold front over NW Gulf will stall over the northern waters 
tonight then lift northward on Mon. The next cold front is 
forecast to enter the NW Gulf Tue night, then move slowly across 
the Gulf region Wed through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push 
the cold front across the Gulf waters late Thu into Fri. Gale 
force conditions are possible west of the front offshore of 
Tampico, Mexico late Thu night, and offshore of Veracruz, Mexico 
on Fri. 


Mid- to upper-level cyclonic flow over the far eastern Caribbean
Sea continues to weaken. Scattered showers linger across the 
Leeward Islands and Virgin Islands, as well as the waters to the 
south and south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Comparatively 
drier air is seen over the central and western portions of the 
basin. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh to strong trades south 
of 16N between 68W-79W, with near gale-force winds near the coast
of Colombia from 10N-12N between 74W-77W. Gentle to moderate 
trades are noted across the NW and eastern Caribbean. Seas near 
Colombia are up to 9 ft with 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

High pressure north of the area will maintain fresh to strong 
trade winds elsewhere across the central Caribbean through Fri 
night. Winds will pulse to gale force off the coast of Colombia 
each night through Thu night. N to NE swell will move across the 
Tropical N Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu before stating to
subside Fri. 


A 1020 mb low is located near 30N60W with a stationary front 
extending southwest from it to 26N72W. A shear line extends 
westward from that point to near the Florida Keys near 24N80W. 
Showers are seen along the front. Stationary front over the 
Gulf of Mexico extends across the Florida Peninsula into the 
western Atlantic near the FL and Georgia border. A surface 
trough is seen to the south across Florida. This trough is 
producing scattered showers and tstorms from central Florida 
northward into the Atlantic waters to 20N and west of 78W. 
Scattered showers are present near the front along the coast.
Two troughs are analyzed in the west- central Atlantic: one 
from 27N56W to 21N62W, and the other from 25N48W to 20N50W. 
Broken clouds and isolated showers are associated with both 
of these features. High pressure dominates the rest of the 
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh winds are seen on the north side 
of the stationary front/shear line with seas up to 8 ft. 

High pres will prevail over the forecast waters through midweek. 
The next cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast on Wed and 
stall over the northern waters on Thu. Reinforcing cold air will 
push the front southward Thu night into Fri. Gale conditions are 
possible W of the front across the north waters Thu night and Fri.