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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 152200

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W, from 
02N to 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 39W, 
from 02N to 24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 39W and 42W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W S of 21N,
moving W at 10-15 kts. There is limited convection in the 
vicinity of this wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W S of 
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated 
strong convection is observed from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 17N24W to 10N32W to 08N44W. The ITCZ continues from 
08N44W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 10N between 11W and 23W. 


A surface trough across central Florida is supporting scattered 
moderate convection over waters within 120 nm of southern 
Florida. High pressure is centered near 28N90W. Light winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will settle across the E central
Gulf tonight through Thu. A front will settle north of the 
northern Gulf Tue night and linger in this region through Thu. 
This will increase winds across the northeast and north- central 
Gulf with moderate southerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north 
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the 
late afternoons and evenings through Wed. 


A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the 
Caribbean waters, with gentle to moderate winds across much of 
the basin. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central 
Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central
Atlantic to the southeast Bahamas and is supporting moderate to 
fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A broad 
trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across 
the eastern Caribbean and will reach 75W tonight. The tropical 
wave will continue moving westward across the western basin Tue 
through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the 
north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through 
Fri. This will help produce fresh to strong trades across the 
south- central basin. 


A surface trough extends from 31N76W to central Florida. Isolated
showers are in the vicinity of the trough. A second trough is
from 26N63W to 20N63W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of 
the trough. A third trough is from 31N43W to 24N43W. No
significant convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A weak
pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. Mainly
light to gentle winds are found north of 20N between 35W and 65W,
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the North of
20N, seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 65W, and 3-5 ft
elsewhere. Seas of 4-5 ft prevail south of 20N. 

For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extends off the Florida 
coast from 30N75W to 28N80W, with showers and thunderstorms along
and ahead of it. A frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida
waters Tue night and linger across the region through Thu, which
will keep active weather persistent through midweek. A broad 
surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the 
eastern Caribbean extending from 21N69W to 11N71W is interrupting
the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms occurring E of 
this trough will persist through Tue as the trough drifts 
westward. High pressure will reestablish along 25-27N Wed through