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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 302306

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic offshore of Sierra Leone 
near 07N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N28W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N28W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 21W and 33W.


Fresh to strong SE return flow is setting up across the western 
Gulf west of 90W ahead of the next approaching cold front that 
will push off the Texas coast on Friday. To the E, a warm front
extends along 30N and E of 89W. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf in the vicinity of this front.
Light to gentle winds prevail E of 90W. Seas are up to 9 ft N of 
25N and W of 93W, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere W of 90W. Seas of 2-5 
ft are noted E of 90W.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Fri. 
Winds and seas are forecast to diminish as the front reaches from
SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico on Sat, and from near 
Mobile, Alabama to Veracruz, Mexico by Sun. The front will then move
southeast of the Gulf late on Mon. High pressure is expected in 
the wake of the front.


High pressure north of the front is supporting fresh NE winds 
over the Yucatan Channel and to the south of central Cuba. Seas 
are 5 to 6 ft in the NW Caribbean. A recent scatterometer pass 
revealed fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central and 
southwest Caribbean, with the strongest winds off Colombia. 
Combined seas are 7 to 9 ft in this area. Moderate trade winds 
with 3 to 5 ft area noted over the eastern Caribbean. No 
significant convection is evident at this time.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure north of the area 
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas mainly across the central 
Caribbean through early next week.


A cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N64W, then it becomes a 
shearline to 22N76W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevails in the 
vicinity of the front N of 25N and W of 57W. Seas range from 7 to 
9 ft behind the front N of 25N and between 50W and 66W. 1019 mb 
high pressure is evident E of the front, centered near 28N44W. 
Light breezes are noted in the area of the high pressure, with 4 
to 6 ft combined seas in mixed swell. The pattern also supports 
moderate trade winds farther south, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas 
in a mix of wind waves with longer period NW swell. 

For the forecast west to 55W, the front will move southeast 
across the forecast waters while weakening. Fresh to occasionally 
strong NE to E winds, and rough seas in NW swell will follow the 
front into Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off 
the NE coast of Florida Sun night, and reach from near Bermuda to 
the northern Bahamas by late Mon. 

East of 40W, strong winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident north 
of 25N between 30W and 40W, associated with a gale force low near
the Azores. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in NW 
swell are noted elsewhere east of 40W.