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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



870 
AXNT20 KNHC 031757
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Mar 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 01200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery 
through 
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed off 
the coast of Georgia a with a cold front extending southwestward 
across northern Florida into the northeast Gulf of Mexico near 
the Big Bend of Florida. Gale force SW-W winds have begun north 
of 30N ahead of the cold front. The low will shift northeastward 
today, dragging the front across the region. These gale force 
winds will shift east with the progression of the low and front 
through mid-week, remaining mainly north of 29N. Gale-force 
winds should diminish by Friday morning. Seas will build as the 
winds increase and the low deepens, peaking at around 16 ft 
along 31N tonight.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National 
Hurricane Center at the website: 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the
Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the west 
coast of Africa near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N20W to 03N30W to near the coast of Brazil near 00N46W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-
07N  between 13W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is also 
within 100 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-36W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front enters the Gulf from Cedar Key, Florida near 29N83W 
and extends across the central Gulf and into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche. Broad high pressure is northwest of the front from the 
lower Mississippi Valley to the Texas coast and across eastern 
Mexico. A scatterometer pass from 1500 UTC revealed fresh N 
winds  behind the front, becoming moderate to gentle west of 
90W. Significant precipitation has dissipated along the 
boundary. Seas in the Bay of Campeche range from 6-8 ft with 3-5 
ft seas across the rest of the basin.

The cold front will reach from the Straits of Florida to the 
northwest Yucatan Peninsula by early Thu. The eastern portion of 
the front will move into the northwest Caribbean Fri, as the 
western portion moves northward as warm front across the 
southwest  Gulf, associated with developing low pressure near 
Tampico, Mexico. Looking ahead, the low pressure area will 
deepen and move rapidly toward the northeast Gulf Sat, dragging 
a cold front across the Gulf through Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level riding covering the Caribbean sea from 70W westward 
and deep layer dry air revealed in water vapor imagery is 
allowing for mostly fair weather conditions to prevail across 
the  basin. Fresh trades are in the eastern and central 
Caribbean, with moderate trades in the western Caribbean, west 
of 80W. Strong winds may still be present within 90 nm of the 
coast of Colombia in the wake of last nights gale-force 
conditions. A surface trough extends from 19N80W to 13N84W near 
the coast of Nicaragua. No significant weather is associated 
with this feature. Seas to 13 ft are still present in the south-
central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft elsewhere. 

Ridging north of the area over the western Atlantic is
shifting southeastward today ahead of a cold front moving off the
east coast of Florida. This will support fresh to strong trade
winds over the southern Caribbean, but gentle to moderate winds
elsewhere. The cold front will move into the northwest Caribbean
late Thu, stall briefly Fri from central Cuba to the northeast
Yucatan Peninsula, then lift north Sat. Meanwhile, a trough will
move westward through the Windward Islands Thu, and into the 
central Caribbean by Sat. Looking ahead, another front may move 
into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, and stall from the 
Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section above for details on the ongoing 
Gale Warning east of northern Florida.

A warm front extends eastward from the 1011 mb low centered near 
31N78W to 30N70W where it continues SE as a stationary front 
27N61W. Satellite imagery is showing scattered showers and 
thunderstorms east of the low and west of 70W. The low will move 
northeast today, with a trailing cold front reaching from 
Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by tonight. The front will 
reach from 27N65W to eastern Cuba Thu, then stall from 24N65W to 
eastern Cuba by Fri. Looking ahead, the front may lift north 
over the Bahamas and Florida early Sat as low pressure moves 
through the Gulf of Mexico. The low may move rapidly from 
central Florida to Bermuda Sat night into Sun, possibly 
accompanied by winds to gale force, and dragging a cold front 
across the region through Sun night.

Further east, a cold front extending from 32N48W connects to the 
tail end of the stationary front near 27N61W. NW moderate to 
fresh winds are behind the boundary while SE moderate flow is 
east of the boundary, with seas north of 30N ranging from 10-15 
ft. A 1025 mb high near 27N30W is allowing for moderate to 
gentle return flow across the Atlantic waters north of 20N. 
Trade winds become moderate to fresh south of 20N.  Seas for the 
remainder of the basin range from 6-9 ft.

$$
Mora