Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 262228

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2130 UTC.


Caribbean Gale Warning:

A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower
pressure over Colombia is causing easterly gales and sea heights
of up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia through the weekend.
Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore 
Waters Forecasts at the website 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, for more information. 

Atlantic Gale Warning:  

Low pressure of 1012 mb currently near 24N36W will move SW and 
strengthen some through Fri night. As it does, strong SE winds to
the N and E of the center will increase to gale-force from 26N to
30N between 35W and 39W on Friday. The low will stall around
21N45W and gradually weaken this weekend, and winds will gradually
subside. Seas associated with the area of gales will reach 10 to
14 ft. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for more information on this gale warning.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia 
near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 00N31W to
00N37W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 04N between 40W and 44W and from 00N to 08N between 11W and 


A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to far western Cuba.
Fresh to strong NE winds are noted behind this front in the SE
Gulf of Mexico and in the Bay of Campeche, along with seas of 7 to
9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is located along and within
about 90 nm behind the cold front. Elsewhere across the Gulf of
Mexico, fresh NE winds are diminishing and seas are 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the passage of 
the cold front will gradually improve by Fri as the front moves 
into the NW Caribbean Sea. High pressure will follow the front. 
Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this 
weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next cold front that 
will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is expected to move 
into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall along the 
northern Gulf through Mon night. As high pressure moves eastward 
into the western Atlantic, expect fresh to strong east winds 
across the Straits of Florida and the far SE Gulf Sat and Sat 
night and diminish Sun.  


Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information 
about a Gale Warning that is near the coast of Colombia for the 
next 24 hours or so.

A cold front extends from far western Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Convection associated with the front is mainly behind
it, over Mexico, Belize, and north of the area in the Gulf of
Mexico. Fresh NE winds are occurring behind the front. 

Elsewhere across the basin, there is no significant convection as
a surface ridge centered in the north Atlantic extends SW into the
area, maintaining moderate to fresh trades, except strong NE to E
winds in the south-central Caribbean. These strong winds, and
previously mentioned gales, are leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft in
the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft
in the NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the 
south- central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds 
elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the 
forecast period. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean 
through Fri, then stall and dissipate by Sat night. Strong NE to E
winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba
Fri night through Sun night. Similar winds will resume in the 
Windward Passage Mon night. 


Please see the Special Features section above for information on a
low pressure that will induce gales well SE of Bermuda on Friday. 

A cold front stretches from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and into the
Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60
miles either side of the front. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds
with seas of 5 to 7 ft follow the front. To the east, scattered
moderate convection associated with the low pressure depicted in
the special features section above is extending N of 20N between
30W and 48W. Also in association with this low, winds N of 25N and
E of 55W are strong and easterly, extending all the way to the
Canary Islands. Seas in this zone of strong winds are 8 to 12 ft.
Elsewhere across the basin, generally moderate to locally strong
trades dominate, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N68W 
to central Cuba by Fri morning then stall. The western part of 
the front will begin to lift northward Sat. By Sun morning, a 
weakening frontal boundary will extent from 31N55W to the NW 
Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient across the area will support 
fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Great 
Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward passage late 
Fri night through Sun night. Southerly flow will increase E of NE 
Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to 
enter the western Atlantic on Mon. 


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Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Jan-2023 22:28:48 UTC