AXNT20 KNHC 192327
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is centered near 20.7N 94.5W at
19/2100 UTC or 350 nm SSE of mouth of The Rio Grande moving NW
at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast
track, the disturbance is expected to approach the coast of
northeastern Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday
night. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 30 kt (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is
expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. The Potential Tropical
Cyclone is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated totals of 8 inches, along the eastern coast
of Mexico from the northern portions of the state of Veracruz
across the state of Tamaulipas. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches
with isolated higher amounts possible across far south Texas. The
combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry
areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland
from the shoreline. Swells generated by this system are forecast
to affect eastern Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
Please, read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands along 28W from
19N southward, moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 25W and 30W.
A second tropical wave is entering the Caribbean Sea with axis
along 61W from 19N southward into eastern Venezuela, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection across
the Windward Islands and regional Atlantic waters, and also over
eastern Venezuela. Moisture associated with this wave will
continue to affect the Windward Islands tonight and Sat while
spreading northward over the Leeward Islands.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands
at 13N23W to 08N47W. The ITCZ continues from 08N47W to 10N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 30W and
50W, and from 08N to 13N between 55W and 60W.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is over the SW Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for portions of the
coast of NE Mexico and south Texas in association with this
system. Please, see the Special Features section for more
Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the
eastern Gulf, producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow.
Winds increase to near gale force over the SW Gulf based on the
most recent scatterometer pass. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except in the
SW Gulf where moderate seas are likely.
Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are observed over
the northern Gulf while numerous moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over the SW Gulf, particularly from 20N to
23N between 92W and 95W. The latter is related to Potential
Tropical Cyclone Four. Some shower activity is near South Florida
in a SE wind flow.
For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Four will move to
22.0N 95.6W Sat morning, 23.8N 96.8W Sat afternoon, inland to
25.6N 98.1W Sun morning, inland to 27.1N 99.6W Sun afternoon, and
dissipate Mon morning.
Latest scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh
trades over the central Caribbean, in the lee of eastern Cuba,
and to the NW of Jamaica. An altimeter data show seas of 8 to 9
ft near the coast of Colombia, and 4 to 6 ft across the remainder
of the central Caribbean. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere
except in parts of the NW Caribbean.
Daytime heating and local sea breezes combined with available
moisture support scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Greater Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are over the NW Caribbean likely associated with an inverted trough.
For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High combined with the
Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to
strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to
fresh trade winds across the remainder of the eastern and central
Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds are also expected across the
Windward Passage tonight and Sat night. The ridge will weaken
Sun night through Tue, diminishing the winds across the region to
gentle to moderate speeds.
As it is normal for this time of the year, the Bermuda-Azores
High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with the associated
ridge extending westward across the Bahamas and Florida. Under
the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow is noted. W of 35W, seas are generally in the 4 to 6 ft
range, except N of 27N and W of 55W where seas of 3 to 4 ft
prevail. Higher seas of 6 to 7 ft are E of 35W in the Meteo
France area of responsibility. An area of isolated showers and
thunderstorms is N of 27N between 46W and 49W related to an-upper
level low spinning near 31N45W.
For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda Azores High combined with
the passage of a tropical wave across the eastern and central
Caribbean will support moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N
through Sun morning. Locally strong winds are likely N of Hispaniola
and the approaches of the Windward Passage tonight and Sat night.
The ridge will weaken Sun evening into early next week, thus
diminishing these winds to gentle to moderate speeds.