AXNT20 KNHC 270901
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between an Atlantic
high pressure ridge and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea,
pulsing to gale-force winds at night near the coast of Colombia
and Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night. Seas are forecast to
peak around 12 to 13 ft each morning in the vicinity of 12N75W.
Scatterometer data from 15 UTC indicated 25 to 30 kt within about
90 nm of the coast of Colombia, with 20 to 25 kt winds elsewhere
across the central Caribbean.
Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell associated with
a complex storm system over the north-central Atlantic has
propagated into the forecast waters. Seas greater than 12 ft are
covering the waters N of 26N between 32W and 59W, peaking near 15
ft. Seas will subside below 12 ft late tonight. Wave periods will
average 14 to 16 seconds.
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters
Forecast at www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 07N12W to
00N30W. The ITCZ continues from 00N30W to 03S48W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 06N between
10W and 21W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds
prevail north of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range north of the Yucatan
peninsula, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, a surface ridge extending into the central Gulf
from the western Atlantic will dominate the area through Tue.
Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the Yucatan peninsula during
the evening hours through this period. A cold front entering the
northwestern Gulf on Tue will move southeastward and reach from
the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico Tue night.
It will then weaken and reach from the Florida Straits to the
eastern Bay of Campeche Wed evening. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
are expected at the northwestern Gulf behind the front into Wed
morning. High pressure building in the wake of the front will
support fresh to locally strong easterly winds across the Bay of
Campeche and southeastern Gulf the middle to end of the week.
Please read the Special Features section for details on a Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean Sea.
Aside from the gale force winds over Colombia, strong to near-
gale force winds are over the south central Caribbean as well as
over the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds are over the
north central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere
across the Caribbean, except gentle to moderate in the lee of
Cuba. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over the south central
Caribbean and 6-8 ft over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, seas of
5-6 ft prevail, except 2-4 ft in the lee of Cuba.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support
fresh to strong easterly winds at the central Caribbean most of
the week. Winds north of Colombia will pulse to gale-force at
night through Tue night, then again Thu and Fri night. Fresh to
strong trade winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras through
Wed morning, occasionally reaching near-gale force. Moderate to
fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean.
Refer to the section above for details on the significant swell
event that is propagating across the northern forecast waters.
High pressure of 1022 mb is centered near 30N63W. A cold front
extends from 31N30W to 24N50W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are south of 20N and
west of 45W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Aside
from the area of 12 ft seas, seas greater than 8 ft are found N of
23N between 30W and 60W as well as S of 20N west of 54W. Seas of
3-4 ft are noted west of 65W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft
For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will prevail over the
western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off
the US east coast on Tue morning, then slowly track eastward
north of 26N through Fri. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and
higher seas are anticipated in the vicinity of the cold front.
High pressure building in the wake of the front will tighten the
pressure gradient, generating fresh to strong NE to ENE winds
across the Bahamas by Thu night.