Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 292311

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2311 UTC Sun Mar 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Tight pressure gradient between low pressure centered over
northern Colombia and high pressure centered between Bermuda and
the Bahamas will continue supporting nightly gales pulsing off 
the coast of Colombia through Mon night. Seas may reach near 14 
ft by each early morning. Please read the latest High Seas 
Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC,
the latest Offshore Waters Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers, or 
go to the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, 
for more details.


The monsoon trough extends from Liberia near 05N09W to 03N13W. 
The ITCZ continues from 03N13W to 02S33W to the coast of Brazil 
near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S-00N 
between 25W-28W.


A cold front is stalling from the mouth of the Mississippi River
to near the mouth of the Rio Grande. Buoy observations and data
from a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE
winds north of the front off the Louisiana and Texas coasts, with
seas 4 to 6 ft. A trough is well defined in the scatterometer
data front reaching from near southeast Louisiana to
CoatzacoalcosMexico. The scatterometer pass also showed fresh 
winds east of this trough over the south central Gulf. Seas buoy 
and altimeter satellite data indicated seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
remainder of the Gulf. Moderate levels of smoke are evident on 
satellite imagery emerging from agricultural fires in southern 
Mexico over the southwest Gulf. This may be limiting surface 
visibility to 2 to 4 nm in some areas. Moderate smoke may also be
apparent off the coast of western Cuba, extending into the 
southeast Gulf. No significant weather is noted elsewhere across 
the Gulf at this time.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge extending from the western
Atlantic across Florida and into the eastern Gulf will drift
southward and weaken over the next couple days. The stalling 
front extending over the northwest and north central Gulf will 
lift northward as a warm front tonight into Mon. A cold front 
will move into the NW Gulf on Tue and cross the basin through Wed
night, with fresh northerly winds expected behind the front over
the northern Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will develop 
near the northern Yucatan coast this evening as a thermal trough 
develops over the Yucatan Peninsula.  


Please see the Special Features section above for information on 
the Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia.

Recent scatterometer satellite data and buoy observations show
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central Caribbean,
between high pressure centered east of the Bahamas and low
pressure anchored over northern Colombia. Near gale force winds
are evident off the coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated
to be near 13 ft. Seas are 8 to 12 ft elsewhere over the central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds persist elsewhere across the
basin with 5 to 7 ft seas. Scattered showers embedded in the
trade wind flow are noted in regional radar across the Windward
Islands to the coast of Venezuela. A few showers are also noted
near Puerto Rico/USVI and west of Jamaica. These showers are fast
moving and low-topped. Very dry conditions persist in the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere across the Caribbean, and no 
other significant weather is observed at this time.

For the forecast, gale force winds will pulse near the coast of
Colombia tonight and Mon night. High pressure centered over the
east of the Bahamas will maintain fresh to strong trades 
elsewhere over the south- central Caribbean through Tue. Fresh to
strong winds will pulse each evening through Tue over the Gulf 
of Honduras. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Tue 
night through late week as the ridge weakens north of the area. 


West of 65W, a ridge extends westward along 28N from 1024 mb 
high pressure is centered near 28N66W. This is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 22N 
along the north coast of Hispaniola toward the entrances to the 
Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds are evident off the coast of 
northeast Florida. Light to gentle winds persist elsewhere with 3
to 5 ft seas. No significant weather is noted. 

Regarding the forecast for the waters west of 65W, the high 
pressure will drift southward and weaken over the next few days, 
ahead of a cold front expected to move off the southeast U.S. 
coast early Mon. The front will stall north of 27N Mon night into
Tue. The front will lift north by late Tue, ahead of a 
strengthening low pressure expected to move off the southeast 
U.S. coast Tue night. The low pressure will accelerate eastward 
through Thu while pulling a cold front across the offshore 
waters. Strong to near gale force winds are expected ahead of the
front north of 25N Tue night and Wed, with gale force winds 
possible Wed into Wed night off northeast Florida. Increasing 
northerly swell will support building seas across the area 
through Fri. 

Elsewhere farther east, a cold front from 32N42W to 26N58W is
associated with a gale center farther north over the north central
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft 
follow the front north of 28N. Winds and seas will increase 
through late Mon north of 28N between 30W and 50W as the low 
pressure drifts southward. Farther east, 1019 mb high pressure 
near 26N27W may dissipate through Mon ahead of the front, and a 
weaker front moving through the Canary Islands. Because of the 
weakened ridge, only moderate trade wind flow is evident farther 
south over the tropical Atlantic waters, where seas are 5 to 7 
ft. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas to 8 ft are noted 
off the northern coast of Mauritania. 


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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2020 23:11:50 UTC