AXNT20 KNHC 070452
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1252 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Cristobal is centered near 26.2N 90.2W at 07/0300
UTC, or 180 nm SSW of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving
N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A band of
strong thunderstorms is displaced well east of the storm center,
and it extends just off the coast of Tampa, Florida across the
western tip of Cuba and the northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, the
intrusion of dry air is limiting inner core convective activity.
Seas 12 ft or greater are located within 300 nm E semicircle, 150
nm SW and 180 nm NW quadrants with seas to 25 ft over the central
Gulf of Mexico. Cristobal is expected to continue moving north for
the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-
northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will be
near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's
center is forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday
through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri
Monday afternoon into Tuesday.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml,
and the latest High Seas Forecast at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Note that the threat of additional heavy rainfall over southern
Mexico and Central America has diminished, as Tropical Storm
Cristobal continues moving away from the region. A return to a
more climatological monsoon trough pattern and rainfall regime is
expected across Central America and southern Mexico this week.
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W south of 16N, moving
west around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with
An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W south of 19N, moving
west around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this
A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W south of 20N,
moving west around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near
12N17W to 09N19W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to
04N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave near 03N41W to
01N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
within 200 nm south of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of the
ITCZ west of 27W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
Please read the Special Features section above for more details on
Tropical Storm Cristobal.
Tropical Storm Cristobal will move to 27.6N 90.2W Sun morning,
inland into Louisiana to 29.5N 90.7W Sun evening, then cross
Louisiana to 31.8N 91.8W Mon morning and weaken into a tropical
depression and move farther away from the area by Mon evening.
Winds and seas will subside Mon and Mon night, then weak high
pressure builds in from the east into mid-week.
A line of moderate to strong convection is noted in the SW
Caribbean from 09N-13N between 79W-82W. This is near the 1011 mb
Colombian low which is displaced in the SW Caribbean near 10N80W.
Isolated thunderstorms are also seen moving offshore into the
Caribbean along the eastern and western coast of Hispaniola. Fresh
to strong trades prevail across the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh SSE winds in the NW Caribbean. Fresh easterly
winds are north of Hispaniola. Seas range 6 to 8 ft across most of
Fresh to strong SE to SE winds and seas to 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel
associated with departing Tropical Storm Cristobal will gradually
diminish into the morning. Fresh to strong winds will pulse
intermittently in the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong trade winds will also pulse nightly off the coasts
of Colombia and western Venezuela through Mon night. Otherwise,
widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue in far NW
Caribbean through Sun.
Broad surface high pressure extends across much of the central and
western Atlantic Ocean this evening, with a weak surface trough
analyzed along 54W/58W. There is no notable convection with this
trough. Earlier scatterometer data indicated light to moderate
trades prevail across much of the Atlantic forecast waters, with
perhaps some locally fresh winds north of the ITCZ. Seas are less
than 8 ft across the discussion area.
Abundant tropical moisture spreading NE from the NW Caribbean and
Tropical Storm Cristobal will continue to support scattered
showers and thunderstorms over Florida adjacent waters and to the
north of the Bahamas through Sun night. A cold front will enter
waters south of Bermuda Mon, then swing east through the area
through Tue. Along the front, showers and thunderstorms along with
some fresh W winds and higher seas can be expected.