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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 272316

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.


A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 
14N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is observed on either side of the wave
axis from 06N to 09N between 15W and 20W. 

A second tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 40W, south 
of 11N. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted mainly ahead of 
the wave axis from 04N to 07N between 40W and 44W. The satellite-
derived wind data also captured fresh to strong winds primarily 
associated with the strongest convection.

A tropical wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots across the 
central Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 71W, south of 21N, 
extending across the Dominican Republic to near the Venezuela/
Colombia border. Latest scatterometer data captured the wind
shift related to the wave axis as well as moderate to fresh 
winds associated with it. This system continues to generate 
scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms over
parts of Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
including also the Caribbean waters N of 15N between 65W and 71W. 
Moisture associated with this wave will spread into Jamaica and 
eastern Cuba Tue and Wed. The storm activity may produce gusty 
winds and locally heavy rain over the next few days from eastern 
Cuba to the Virgin Islands, especially in mountainous areas, 
leading to flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather 
office for more specific information.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal
near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N20W to 05N35W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from
from 07N to 09N between 15W and 20W, from 02N to 04N between 20W
and 25W, and from 03N to 07N between 40W and 50W. 


A 1021 mb high pressure system located a few hundred miles south
of Bermuda extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over
Texas and Mexico is resulting in mainly gentle to moderate SE 
winds across most of the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft W of 88W and 
1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires 
in Mexico persist across most of the western Gulf, including the 
Bay of Campeche where dense concentration of smoke is noted on 
the smoke graphic recently issued by SAB. Visibilities are 3 nm 
or less across many observing sites along the SW and western Gulf

For the forecast, weak surface ridging will continue to dominate
across the Gulf through Sat. As a result, winds will be SE 
gentle to moderate west of 87W through Thu, but become moderate 
to fresh Thu evening through Sat night. A weak cold front will 
move across the far NE Gulf late tonight, followed by gentle W to
NW winds. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse 
near the N and W portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the 
late afternoons and at night for the next several days. Haze west
of 87W due to agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico
will continue for at least the next couple of days. Visibilities
will be 3 NM or less in the SW Gulf of Mexico, including the Bay
of Campeche.


Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical
wave currently moving across the central Caribbean Sea. 

The persistent upper-level trough has shifted a little to the 
west while weakening. Its axis now extends from eastern Cuba to 
Nicaragua. This feature continues to transport abundant tropical 
moisture northward, enhancing convection across the central and 
SW Caribbean. Low topped trade wind showers are noted elsewhere, 
with a dense concentration of smoke over the Gulf of Honduras due
to agricultural fires over northern Central America.

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is promoting moderate
to locally fresh easterly trade winds over much of the eastern 
and central Caribbean and also west of 84W. Seas in these waters 
are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail. Hazy conditions continue to affect the 
Gulf of Honduras due to agricultural fires over Central America. 
Visibilities are 3 nm or less along the northern coast of Honduras
and the Bay Islands. 

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high
pressure located just south of Bermuda and lower pressure along 
northern South America will force fresh to strong trades over 
the S central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through Wed before 
diminishing late in the week. A tropical wave currently over the 
central Caribbean is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms 
as it moves slowly westward during the next couple of days. Smoke
from agricultural fires over Central America is causing reduced 
visibilities over the Gulf of Honduras.


Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the 
tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic.

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored by a 
1027 mb high pressure system located E of the Azores near 
37N20W. A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure 
located well N of the area near 35N48W to 22N62W. Isolated 
showers are ahead of the trough mainly near 30N49W. Gentle to 
moderate anticyclonic flow dominates most of the waters N of 20N 
and W of 40W where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range, except E of
Florida and NE of the Bahamas where seas are 1 to 3 ft. The 
pressure gradient tightens just N of the Cabo Verde Islands 
between the ridge and low pressures over W Africa. As a result, 
an area of fresh to strong NE winds extends from the Cabo Verde 
Islands to about 23N and W of 25W to the coast of W Africa. Seas 
are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the
tropical Atlantic, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1020 mb Bermuda High is contributing
toward moderate or lighter winds across the basin today. A weak 
cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast tonight,
but then become stationary north of the Bahamas and dissipate by
tomorrow night. The front will be accompanied by scattered 
showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas, away from the 
thunderstorms, should remain quiescent for the next few days 
across the forecast waters. Looking ahead, a late-season cold 
front is anticipated to impact the waters north of the Greater 
Antilles Fri night into at least Sat night.