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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 142345

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
644 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.


...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico from Cedar Key Florida to
27N85W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 21.5N88W, remaining inland
over southern Mexico to 17.5N92.5W. Expect gale force NW to N
winds up to 40 kt, and seas ranging from 12 to 26 feet, S of 24N
and W of the cold front through this evening. The highest sea 
heights are forecast to be near 19N94W. Winds are forecast to 
weaken to below gale force late tonight or early Thursday morning.
Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST, under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.


A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W from 15N southward, to
NW Venezuela. Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the area 
from 10N-15N between 67W-73W, including over NW Venezuela. 
However, this activity may be more influenced by the upper-level 
flow regime, with upper-level cyclonic flow over the northeastern
and north-central Caribbean, and upper-level anticyclonic flow 
over northern South America.


The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern
Guinea and northern Sierra Leone near 09N13W to 07N21W. The ITCZ 
continues from 07N21W to 06N38W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N-14N between the coast of Africa and 28W, and from 03N-09N
between 29W-41W. A surface trough is from 06N39W to 01N41W.


A cold front is over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and gale force
winds are located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. See the 
Special Features Section above for more details. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along and just ahead of the front 
from 25N-29N between 83W-86W. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms cover much of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, with
scattered showers and thunderstorms also over Florida. Overcast 
multilayered clouds with scattered showers cover the Gulf of 
Mexico from the cold front westward, except for an area of clear 
skies within 60 nm of the coasts of Texas and northern Mexico.

The current cold front will move SE of the Gulf around midday 
Thursday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing behind the 
exiting front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front 
and prevail through the weekend.


A surface trough extends from 24N67W to the eastern tip of the
Dominican Republic to 16N69W. Scattered moderate convection is
located near and over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola
and the adjacent waters of the Caribbean north of 17N between
64W-73W. Comparatively drier air covers the area from 15N 
northward and from 75W westward to 85W.

In the far southwest Caribbean, the monsoon trough is creating
scattered moderate convection mainly south of 13N and west of 73W
to Panama, Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua.

High pressure in the NW Atlantic is supporting fresh trade winds 
across most of the Caribbean Sea. The trough in the NE Caribbean,
described above, will move W across Hispaniola tonight. In the NW
Caribbean, strong N winds and building seas will follow a cold 
front entering the Yucatan Channel this evening. Fresh N winds and
seas to 10 ft will spread across the NW Caribbean behind the 
front Thu and Thu night, then diminish Fri into Sat as the front 
stalls and weakens from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras. Expect
increased shower and thunderstorm activity over the northwest
Caribbean Thursday and Thursday night, with heavy rainfall
possible over portions of northern Honduras.


A cold front passes through 32N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, to
Daytona Beach Florida to Cedar Key Florida and into the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Broken multilayered clouds and scattered showers 
cover the Atlantic Ocean to the northwest of a line that passes 
through Bermuda to Daytona Beach Florida.

The surface trough that extends from 24N67W to the eastern tip of
the Dominican Republic is producing scattered moderate convection
south of 25N between 64W-72W.

In the tropical Atlantic, scattered moderate convection extends to
210 nm offshore the coast of South America from the Brazil/French
Guiana border to NE Venezuela, extending almost to the Windward
Islands and Trinidad.

An upper level trough axis passes through 32N20W to 25N26W to 
19N31W to 21N46W to 24N57W. A cold front passes through 32N23W to
31N26W. Rainshowers are possible within 90 nm of a line that
passes through 32N22W to 28N26W to 23N32W, and this line is moving
quickly southeastward. A 1025 mb high near 33N42W is leading to
relatively quiet weather over the central subtropical Atlantic

The aforementioned cold front that currently extends from 32N71W
to Daytona Beach will reach from near 31N74W to the central 
Bahamas and central Cuba from late Thursday night into Friday.
Meanwhile, a trough over the eastern tip of the Dominican 
Republic extending NNE into the adjacent Atlc will move W across 
Hispaniola tonight, and through the southern Bahamas by late Thu. 
As the trough reaches the Bahamas along 75W early Fri it will 
recurve N to the E of the central Bahamas ahead of the cold front,
then move N of the area Sat as the cold front reaches from 
Bermuda to eastern Cuba.

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