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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 012204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Dec 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N14W to 10N16W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N16W to 04N34W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02N to 17N between the African coast 
and 30W, from 03N to 10N between 30W and 40W, and from 02N to 
05N between 40W and 47W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends over the SW Gulf from 23N95W to the Bay
of Campeche. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the northern 
Gulf will dominate the basin through the weekend. This high 
pressure will gradually move eastward, returning the east to 
southeast flow across the northwest Gulf by the end of the week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from the Mona passage to near 11N69W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm east of the
trough. Scattered moderate convection is also noted west of 80W
to Central America. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over
the central Caribbean as well as the eastern Caribbean south of
15N. Light to gentle winds are noted over the NW Caribbean.
Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean,
and 1-3 ft over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will maintain 
generally moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the Caribbean 
through the weekend, with fresh to strong winds pulsing off 
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela, mainly at night. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds will also be possible over the Windward Passage 
and Mona Passage. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N55W to 25N67W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm east of the
front. Fresh to strong winds are noted north of 15N and east of
46W. Seas over this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Moderate to
fresh winds are elsewhere south of 20N, with seas in the 6-8 ft
range. Gentle to moderate winds are north of 20N and west of 46W.
Seas over this are are in the 4-7 ft range east of 75W, and 1-3
ft west of 75W. 

The Cumbre Vieja volcano, on the island of La Palma in the Canary
Islands, has been erupting since 19 September 2021. Marine and 
aviation interests should monitor this ongoing situation by 
reading the Volcanic Ash Advisory issued by Meteo-France, at 
http://vaac.meteo.fr/volcanoes/la-palma/.

For the forecast west of 65W, high pressure will continue to 
build south and east into the area into the weekend, supporting 
moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N by late Fri. 

$$
AL