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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 110002
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue May 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...Special Features...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure located north of the 
Caribbean Sea combined with the Colombian low will support
fresh to strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, within 
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia through early Tue morning. 
Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail over the south- 
central Caribbean through Fri. Seas are expected to build to 11 
ft with the strongest winds tonight into early Tue morning. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Sierra 
Leon/Guinea border at 09N13W to 00N26W. The ITCZ continues from
00N26W to 01N38W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04S to 05N between 20W to 40W. Isolated
convection is from 01S to 02N between 40W to 46W. Numerous strong
convection is along the coast of Liberia approaching the adjacent
waters. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure extends across the central Gulf of Mexico waters. An
area of isolated convection is noted south of Mississippi/Alabama
from 28N to 30N between 85W to 89W. Showers near coastal South 
Texas is making its way to the adjacent waters. Otherwise,
quiescent conditions are observed across the rest of the basin.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the southwest Gulf with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas range 2-5 ft. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across 
the Gulf region and lower pressures over Texas and NE Mexico will 
support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the W 
Gulf through Tue. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan 
Peninsula each evening and dissipate over the SW Gulf by morning. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds will be associated with this 
trough. A frontal boundary will linger across the northern Gulf 
coast through Tue night. Building high pressure across the SE 
CONUS will push the front across the Gulf on Wed, and it is 
expected to exit the basin by Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and building seas will follow the front. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning in currently in effect for near the coast of 
Colombia for frequent gusts to gale force. See the Special
Features section for more information. 

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is impacting the
north central Caribbean, mostly from Puerto Rico to Hispaniola.
Isolated thunderstorms are also noted near Cuba and Jamaica.
Farther south, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is occurring in the SW Caribbean, S of 13N between 77W and 84W. A
partial ASCAT pass from this morning showed fresh to strong trade
winds over the south- central Caribbean. Similar winds are in the
Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds are occurring.
Seas are 8-11 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the
Gulf of Honduras and 4-7 ft elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the lee 
of Cuba. 

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the Caribbean Sea 
combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 
winds, with frequent gusts to gale force near the coast of 
Colombia tonight. Then, fresh to strong trade winds will prevail 
over the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to strong 
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Tue 
night. A moisture surge will continue to affect the eastern 
Caribbean through tonight. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough at the tail-end of a frontal boundary extends from 
32N50W to 30N56W. Showers are noted along it. In the western 
Atlantic, showers and thunderstorms are noted along and near the 
Florida coast, N of 26N and W of 77W. Moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds are noted in this region. Thunderstorms are also 
moving north of Hispaniola into the Atlantic waters, S of 22N 
between 65W and 70W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are observed 
over this area. Otherwise, high pressure extends across the 
central and eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high near 
32N43W with light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas generally 
range 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, a ridge dominates the forecast waters. The next
cold front will move southward across the western Atlantic on Wed
and stall near 31N on Thu. A low will develop along the front on 
Fri allowing the front to move across the northern forecast waters
through late Sat while weakening. High pressure will follow the 
front. 

$$
AReinhart