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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



586 
AXNT20 KNHC 251728
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Sep 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

IAN

Tropical Storm Ian is centered near 15.2N 79.8W at 25/1800 UTC
or 300 nm SSE of Grand Cayman moving WNW at 10 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are peaking near 14
ft near in just N of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered
strong convection is noted from 10N to 21N between 75W and 85W.  
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass 
well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the 
Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over 
western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday and emerge over the 
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Rapid strengthening is 
forecast to begin later today or tonight. Ian is expected to 
become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major 
hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday before it 
reaches western Cuba.

Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and 
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over 
Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding is possible across 
the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula through midweek. 
Additional flooding on rivers across northern Florida and parts 
of the southeast U.S. cannot be ruled out later this week. 
Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are 
expected in portions of western Cuba beginning late Monday, 
where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Efforts to protect 
life and property should be rushed to completion. Regardless of 
Ian's exact track and intensity, there is a risk of dangerous 
storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall along the 
west coast of Florida and the Florida Panhandle by the middle of 
the week. Residents in Florida should ensure they have their 
hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local 
officials, and closely monitor updates to the forecast. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2. shtml and the latest 
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

GASTON... 

Tropical Storm Gaston is centered near 39.4N 36.5W at 25/1500
UTC or 365 nm W of Faial Island In The Central Azores moving WNW 
at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and seas are 
peaking near 22 ft around the center. Gaston is expected to take 
a gradual turn toward the west-southwest by tomorrow. Gradual 
weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Gaston is 
forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Monday. Swells 
generated by Gaston are expected to affect portions of the Azores 
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean 
Prediction Center at website 
https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php and the latest NHC 
Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

There are no tropical waves present based on the latest analysis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Western Sahara near 
21N17W to a 1008 mb low near 23N20W to 10N25W to a 1009 mb low 
near 14N36W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 09N51W to 
the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 33W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted near the 1009 mb low from 12N to 16N
between 34W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 
the ITCZ from 09N to 13N between 44W and 61W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical 
Storm Ian, which is anticipated to impact the central eastern 
Gulf by the middle of the week.

High pressure ridging is noted across the Gulf, with a 1014 mb 
high near 28N94W in the NW Gulf. There are some scattered 
thunderstorms noted in the SW Gulf near a trough extending along 
the southern Mexico coast. Light to gentle winds are noted across 
the entire basin with 1-2 ft seas. 

For the forecast, conditions will begin to deteriorate across the
eastern and central Gulf of Mexico by Tue as Ian moves northward
from Cuba as a major hurricane. Residents along the Florida west
coast and Florida Panhandle need to monitor this system closely 
and review your hurricane preparedness plan.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above on Tropical 
Storm Ian moving across the basin.

Outside the main impacts of T.S. Ian across the central 
Caribbean, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds with 3 to 6 
ft seas are present across the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate 
NNE to NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist over the 
northwestern basin, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft 
seas prevail for the southwestern basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Ian is near 15.2N 79.8W 1001 mb 
at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 
kt with gusts to 55 kt. Ian is expected to turn NW later today, 
and intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian will move to 
near 16.5N 81.1W this evening as a hurricane, then reach near 
18.1N 82.5W Mon morning, then move over western Cuba near 22N84.4W
Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 25.5N 84.8W Wed morning, 
then continue northward Thu and inland across N Florida Fri 
morning. Hazardous conditions will prevail in the NW Caribbean 
through Tue, before winds and seas gradually subside as Ian moves 
N of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Tropical Storm Gaston.

A stationary front extends from 31N58W to 27N69W and a weakening 
front from 27N69W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 26N to 31N between 55W and 64W. Scattered 
thunderstorms are near the tail-end of the dying boundary around 
the northern Bahamas and off South Florida from 23N to 29N 
between 75W and 80W. Moderate northeasterly winds are noted 
north of the stationary front with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere. Seas are around 4-6 ft in this area. 

High pressure extends across the central Atlantic with light to 
gentle winds. Seas are 7-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N. 
In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh winds are noted off 
the African coast, especially due to the influence of 
post-tropical cyclone Hermine. Showers are noted across the 
Canary Islands and off the coast of Morocco. Seas range from 5-9 
ft.  

For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell from Fiona still 
dominates the regional waters today and will decay below 8 ft to 
the S of 27N tonight. Tropical Storm Ian is near 15.2N 79.8W 
1001 mb at 11 AM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained 
winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Ian is expected to turn NW 
later today, and intensify rapidly over the next 2-3 days. Ian 
will move to near 16.5N 81.1W this evening as a hurricane, then 
reach near 18.1N 82.5W Mon morning, then move over western Cuba 
near 22N84.4W Tue morning as a major hurricane, reach near 
25.5N84.8W Wed morning, then continue northward Thu and inland 
across N Florida Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring
well to the E of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 78W 
as Ian moves through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri 
morning.

$$
AReinhart