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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 151021

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.


An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere 
volcano on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. No 
volcanic eruptions or ash emissions have occurred during the 
past 24 hours, and the NOAA Volcanic Ash Advisory Center has 
stopped issuing bulletins for La Soufriere. However, the volcano 
remains in a state of unrest and mariners are advised to 
exercise caution near St. Vincent.


The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean through the coast 
of west Africa near 11N15W and continues SW to 05N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N20W to 02N24W to the equator at 39W. A narrow 
line of scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ, and 
extends westward from 04N26W to 02N50W.


High pressure of 1020 mb located east of NE Florida extends a 
ridge across Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, producing 
moderate east to southeast winds across the region. Convection 
has flared up across coastal sections of the north-central Gulf 
along a stationary front hugging the Gulf coast from southern 
Mississippi across Louisiana into southern Texas. 

A cold front will move into the northern Gulf later this 
morning, then stall and weaken along 27N tonight. A stronger 
cold front will move into the NW Gulf on Sat, with strong 
northerly winds and building seas expected across the western 
Gulf this weekend. Gale force winds are possible near the 
central coast of Mexico Sat night. The front will stall from 
central Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun night and Mon.


An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere 
volcano on the island of St. Vincent.

A ridge dominates Cuba and the NW Caribbean, a weak pressure 
gradient is noted over the eastern Caribbean thanks to a pair of 
frontal boundaries, one north of Hispaniola, and the other NE of 
the Windward Islands. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh 
NE winds across most of the central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to 
moderate trade winds elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean near Costa Rica and 
Panama. Mostly fair weather and isolated showers elsewhere. 

The cold front NE of the Windward Islands will shift eastward 
and weaken today. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail 
across most of the Caribbean through Sun. Fresh to strong SE 
winds are expected in the NW Caribbean this weekend. Fresh to 
strong trade winds will prevail across the central Caribbean Sun 
night through Mon night.


An Ashfall Advisory is no longer in effect for La Soufriere 
volcano on the island of St. Vincent.

A pair of cold fronts continue to move across the west-central 
Atlantic waters. The primary cold front extends from 31N45W to 
16N61W near Antigua and Barbuda in the Windward Islands. The 
second cold front reaches from 31N51W to 22N61W to just north of 
Hispaniola at 20N70W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection 
is noted ahead of the first front, north of 20N within 180 to 
300 nm east of the front. Isolated shower activity is along the 
secondary cold front. 

Both cold fronts will move eastward today while weakening. The 
secondary front will dissipate during the next 12-24 hours, and 
the primary front will become stationary on Fri and dissipate 
through Sat morning. Another cold front will move east of 
northern Florida into the northern waters by early Fri, then 
stall north of the Bahamas this weekend into early next week. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the 
influence of 1022 mb high pressure centered near 32N29W. The 
pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over west 
Africa will result in fresh trade winds between the Cabo Verde 
Islands and the coast of W Africa through Fri.