AXNT20 KNHC 051026
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1005 mb low pressure currently centered
near 24N53W will drift N over the next 48 to 72 hours, then curve
E and begin to accelerate. This low is forecast to strengthen
during this time. Strong to near gale-force winds on the N side of
this low will increase to gales tonight, with the area of gales
expanding to all areas N of 28N between 45W and 60W Mon night into
Tue. Sustained winds of 40 to 45 kt are forecast. Gale conditions
are likely to persist much of this week near this low pressure.
A broad area of 12 to 18 ft seas in a combination of N long
period swell and wind waves generated by this low pressure extends
N of 23N between 40W and 65W. Seas will become increasingly
hazardous in this region as the low intensifies and winds
increase, with seas in the area of gales forecast to reach 20 to
25 ft Tue into Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
Far Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Gales are forecast over the
next 24 hours over portions of marine zones Madeira, Casablanca,
and Agadir, mainly N of 30N. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast issued by METEO-France at the website:
http://www.gmdss.org/II.html for more details.
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W from
05N23W to 08N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within
150 nm on either side of the axes of these features.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A weak stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to the
Middle Texas coast. No convection is associated with this boundary
and winds on both sides if are light to gentle. Offshore Deep
South Texas and adjacent portions of northern Mexico, moderate
southerly winds are approaching the front. Elsewhere across the
Gulf of Mexico, modest ridging associated with high pressure
centered in the SE U.S. is leading to mainly gentle SE winds. Seas
are 3 ft or less, except for 5 in the Yucatan Channel and in the
Bay of Campeche. The basin remains void of significant convection,
with the exception of a cluster of thunderstorms moving W through
the central Bay of Campeche. N of the aforementioned boundary,
patchy fog is restricting visibility along the northern Gulf
coast, mainly within 90 nm of shore.
For the forecast, the stationary front in the northern Gulf will
dissipate today. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
and dominate much of the week.
Moderate to fresh NE trades dominate the central and western
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate mainly N winds in the east.
Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except in the SE basin, where seas are 2 to 4
ft. Some moderate long period N swell is passing through the
Atlantic passages of the NE Caribbean. No significant convection
is occurring in the basin.
For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
to the north and climatological low pressure over Colombia will
support moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the area, with
areas of strong winds in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage.
Little overall change in weather pattern is anticipated during
the forecast period.
Please read the Special Features section above for information on
gales developing in association with low pressure SE of Bermuda as
well as ongoing gales in the far eastern Atlantic.
The Atlantic basin is becoming increasingly dominated by
strengthening 10015 mb low pressure centered near 24N53W. N of
this low, an expansive area of strong NE to E winds extends from
40W to 60W. Fresh NE winds dominate S and W of this low and
prevail to the SE Bahamas and greater Antilles. In the SE
quadrant of the low, winds are mainly moderate, by relatively
cyclonic in direction N of 20N and W of 40W. Widespread moderate
with scattered strong convection associated with this low is
located N of 25N between 47W and 62W.
Farther west, a weak cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to
the NE FL coast. Behind the front moderate to fresh N winds
prevail, with light to gentle winds ahead of it. No convection is
occurring with this boundary, which should dissipate today.
For the remainder of the basin, S of 20N and E of 40W, mainly
gentle trades dominate.
A very large expanse of seas in excess of 8 ft are impacting the
Atlantic waters N of 20N and W of 75W, with seas in excess of 12
ft in the area associated with the low pressure, detailed in the
Special Features section above, as well in and around the Canary
and Azores islands and offshore Morocco. To the S and W of the
higher seas area, seas average 4 to 7 ft.
For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure just E of the area near
24N54W will drift north through midweek, then turn E and move away
from the area late this week. This will bring additional strong
winds to the NE waters Mon, increasing to gales Tue and continuing
through Thu. Long- period north to northeast swell will impact
the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with
rough seas through the week.