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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 230529

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
129 AM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.


Tropical Depression Three is centered near 26.1N 79.3W at 23/0300
UTC or 60 nm SE of West Palm Beach Florida moving NW at 9 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. On the forecast track, 
the center of the depression should remain just offshore of the 
east coast of Florida over the next day or so. Rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches are expected across the Bahamas and the east coast 
of Florida through Tuesday. Widely scattered moderate convection 
is over a large area from 25N-30N between 75W-80W. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC 
for more details.


An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located near 40W/41W from 
02N-18N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are from 05N-10N
between 36W-44W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. This wave is embedded within the middle of a 
strong outbreak of Saharan dust, and no convection is present.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 03N-18N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-10N 
between 56W- 63W, including over portions of Suriname and Guyana. 
Similar convection is also over the Leeward Islands from 14N-17N 
between 61W-63W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W/71W south of 19N, 
moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
over Hispaniola. 


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 
12N16W to 10N30W. The ITCZ extends from 10N30W to 09N39W, then 
resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N42W to 07N49W. The ITCZ 
continues W of another tropical wave from 06N52W to the coast of 
Suriname near 06N55W. Aside from the convection previously 
described in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough over W 
Africa from 07N-12N between 11W-16W.


Surface ridging is over the N Gulf along 30N. 5-10 kt variable  
winds are over most of the Gulf. 15-20 kt NE winds are, however, 
along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 18N-21N between
90W-96W. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over the NE Gulf near 28N86W. Another small upper level low is 
centered over the the SW Gulf near 22N95W. 

A ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico will weaken through 
Tue, allowing a cold front to move into the northern portion of 
the Gulf of Mexico. The front will stall from near the Florida Big
Bend to S Texas Tue night and dissipate Wed night. Gentle to 
moderate winds will continue across most of the basin, except for 
fresh winds pulsing to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula at night. 


Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See Above.

Widely scattered moderate convection is over Hispaniola, E Cuba,
and Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is
over NW Venezuela, N Colombia, Panama, and the SW Caribbean S of
11N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the
central Caribbean near 14N73W. Strong subsidence is over most of 
the central and eastern Caribbean. 

High pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to 
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat,
pulsing to near gale force along the coast of Colombia at night. 
High pressure will build N of the area Thu. This will increase 
areal coverage of the fresh to strong trades across the central 


Please see the Special Features section above for more information
on Tropical Depression Three. Two tropical waves are also over the
Atlantic. See above.

A high pressure ridge extends along 29N across much of the 
northern Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N61W, and a 
1025 mb high near 29N34W. 

Surface ridging dominating the Atlantic will move eastward on Tue
night as Tropical Depression Three moves N across the western 
waters. A surface trough will move into the NW waters Thu, where 
it will linger through the remainder of the week.

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