AXNT20 KNHC 261759
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 26 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
An Atlantic tropical wave is near 16W, south of 13N and moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Interaction between this wave and the
monsoon trough results in scattered moderate convection from 05N
to 08N between 14W and 17W.
Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, south of 10N and
moving westward near 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with
A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 81W, south of 16N and moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon
trough, scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to the
Panama coast between 78W and 82W.
A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the of Guinea-
Bissau/Guinea border across 03N20W to 03N32W. An ITCZ continues
from 03N32W to 01N38W, then from 01N41W to near Sucuriju, Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 05N between
17W and 28W, and from 01N to 03N between 42W and the Brazilian
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A cold front extends from near New Orleans, Louisiana to 24N94W
then continues as a stationary front to just north of Tampico,
Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along a
squall line, up to 220 nm ahead of the front from 26N to the
coast of Mississippi/Florida Panhandle. Fresh to strong winds
with seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident in this area. Moderate to fresh
southerly winds and seas of 4 o 6 ft exist across the eastern and
south central Gulf, including the Florida Strait. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail for the western Gulf.
For the forecast, the squall line continues to move ahead of the
front and is producing gusty winds and rough seas near the
strongest thunderstorms. Moderate to locally strong southerly flow
can be expected in the central and eastern Gulf ahead of the
front, with gentle to moderate winds behind it. The front will
continue pushing eastward through the northern basin over the next
few days, weakening as it reaches the NE Gulf by Friday. Showers
and thunderstorms will persist ahead of the front through this
time. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin,
allowing winds to diminish.
Convergent trades are coupling with favorable mid to upper-level
winds to trigger scattered showers over the SE basin. Double
Bermuda Highs continue to supply gentle to moderate ENE to E
trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft across the eastern and NW basin.
Fresh ENE to ESE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are seen just north of
Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 4 to 5 ft are
present over the SW basin.
In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will
support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean
during the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong north of
Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off
Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend and into
early next week.
A weak cold front curves westward from southeast of Bermuda
across 31N55W through 29N62W to beyond 31N79W. Scattered showers
are noted north of 28N between 58W and 68W. Otherwise, the
Atlantic ridge extending from a 1031 mb high over the NE Atlantic
across 31N29W to the Bahamas. This feature is promoting light to
gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft N of 20N between 25W and the
Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades with 3 to 5 ft
seas are found from 02N to 20N between 27W and the Less Antilles,
and N of 12N between the African coast and 25W. Light to gentle
monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of
the Atlantic Basin.
For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic will shift eastward through Fri night as a cold front
moves across the southeastern U.S. Ahead of the front, winds off
the NE Florida coast will become fresh to locally strong tonight
through Fri night. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the rest of the region through the early next week.
Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola
and the Bahamas through the weekend and into early next week.