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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 071023
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Dec 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Storm Warning: 

A large area of low pressure located over the central subtropical
Atlantic about 670 nautical miles ESE of Bermuda centered near 
29N53W with a minimum central pressure of 994 mb, continues to 
produce a broad area of showers and thunderstorms in the northern 
semicircle of the low. This convection, numerous moderate to
isolated strong in intensity, extends N of 26N between 52W and
62W. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for 
development and a subtropical or tropical storm could form in the 
day or two. By Thursday night or early Friday, the low will move 
northeastward over cooler waters and interact with a mid- latitude
trough, limiting the chance for additional subtropical or 
tropical development of the system.

Regardless of development, this system is already producing a
large area of gale force winds and storm force winds have
developed this morning on the north side of the low, extending to
beyond 31N between 51W and 58W. Gales current are impacting 
waters N of 25N, between 47W and 60W. Strong gale to storm force 
winds are expected to continue through Thu night. Peak seas have 
increased to around 30 ft near 31N54W, and are expected to 
continue rising today. Seas of 12 ft or greater are present N of 
21N 43W and 67W. This area of very rough seas will continue to 
expand into tonight. 

Overall, there is a medium chance of subtropical or tropical 
development of this low within the next 48 hours. More information
about this system, including the associated storm warning, can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service at: 
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...-

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to
08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 08N46W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ extending to 03N,
between 20W and 42W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb surface high pressure centered just S of the Florida Big
Bend is dominate the weather over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog
is restricting visibility over waters within about 30 nm of the
shore from the Upper Texas coast to N of Tampa Bay. Light to 
gentle winds are observed in the NE Gulf near the high pressure 
center. Moderate to fresh easterlies are observed in the southern 
Gulf, while moderate to fresh SE winds are observed in the western
Gulf. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the NE Gulf 
and North Florida through Sat. Patchy fog may continue to impact 
portions of the northern Gulf coastal waters today. Moderate to 
fresh return flow will prevail W of 92W through tonight then 
diminish through Sat night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between high pressure near the Florida Peninsula and
lower pressure in the southern Caribbean is supporting fresh to
locally strong NE winds in the Windward Passage, offshore 
Colombia, and in the lees of Cuba and Hispaniola. Moderate to 
fresh NE winds dominate elsewhere, except gentle winds are
impacting SE Caribbean waters. Seas are generally 4-6 ft 
throughout the basin, with the exception of the Mona and Anegada 
Passages, where northerly swell originating from the central 
Atlantic is increasing seas to 6-8 ft.

For the forecast, deepening low pressure across the central 
Atlantic during the next few days will maintain NE winds across 
much of the basin, and fresh to locally strong NE winds through 
the Caribbean Passages, in the lees of the Greater Antilles, and 
offshore Colombia into Fri. Large NE swell across the central 
Atlantic will move through the Caribbean Passages and Tropical 
Atlantic waters into the weekend, with highest seas tonight into 
Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on a 
storm force wind producing low pressure SE of Bermuda that has a 
potential for tropical or subtropical development over the next 48
hours. 

The powerful and strengthening low pressure in the central
subtropical Atlantic is dominating weather across much of the 
basin. Strong winds or higher, rotating counter-clockwise around
the low, are present N of 22N between 40W and 70W. Fresh winds
then extend S to 18N and W to 75W. Areas offshore Florida are
experiencing light to gentle NE winds and some patchy fog has
formed within 30 nm of the NE Florida coast. To the S of 18N,
gentle to moderate winds prevail. The low pressure is aiding in
generate seas in excess of 8 ft N of 18N between 30W and 75W. To
the S and W of this area, seas are 5 to 7 ft.

Extending E from the low, an occluded front continues to 40W,
where it transitions to a warm front that arcs to 25N30W, with
then a cold front continuing SE to 25N25W before bending NE and
extending to over the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate
convection is noted within 120 on both sides of the complex
boundary. Winds are generally moderate or less on both sides of
the boundary, except N of 30N and E of 30W, where a related 991 
mb surface surface low over the Azores is generating strong mainly
W winds, and seas of 10 to 14 ft. To the S of this low, seas are 
7 to 10 ft across the eastern Tropical Atlantic. NE to E trades 
dominate the eastern Tropical Atlantic, with speeds moderate or 
less due to a 1015 mb surface ridge centered just N of the Cabo 
Verde Islands. 

A 120 nm wide band of scattered convection associated with a mid-
level trough and northeastward moving moisture plume extends from 
near 14N50W to 30N36W, where it intersects with the aforementioned
frontal boundary. 

For the forecast for areas W of 55W, see Special Features section
above for details and forecast conditions that will dominate much
of the region this week in association with the storm-force low
centered near 29N53W that has potential for subtropical or
tropical development. Otherwise, large long-period north to 
northeast swell generated by the low will impact the Atlantic 
waters and Caribbean Passages between the southeastern Bahamas and
the E Caribbean producing high seas into the weekend, with large 
E swell reaching the Florida offshore waters N of 26N early Fri 
through Sat. 

 $$ 
KONARIK